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Globalization and changing patterns in the international transmission of shocks in financial markets

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  • Bordo, Michael D.
  • Murshid, Antu Panini

Abstract

In this paper we compare various characteristics of the cross-country transmission of shocks in the financial markets of both advanced and emerging countries during two periods of globalization -- the pre-World War I classical gold standard era, 1880-1914, and the post-Bretton Woods era, 1975-2000. Based on principal components analysis on monthly spreads on long-term sovereign bond yields and on an EMP measure of currency crises, an index of global stress, and impulse response functions from VARs estimated using weekly data on short-term interest rates, we conclude that financial market shocks were more globalized before 1914 compared to the present. We postulate that this difference in systemic stability between the two eras of globalization reflects factors such as strong cross-country interdependence fostered through links to gold, the growing financial maturity of advanced countries, and the widening of the center to include a more diverse group of countries spanning several regions.
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  • Bordo, Michael D. & Murshid, Antu Panini, 2006. "Globalization and changing patterns in the international transmission of shocks in financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 655-674, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:25:y:2006:i:4:p:655-674
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    Cited by:

    1. Quinn, Dennis & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2008. "Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Explaining the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001," CEPR Discussion Papers 7013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Mitchener, Kris James & Weidenmier, Marc, 2015. "Was the Classical Gold Standard Credible on the Periphery? Evidence from Currency Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 10388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Marc Flandreau & Juan H. Flores & Norbert Gaillard & Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2010. "The End of Gatekeeping: Underwriters and the Quality of Sovereign Bond Markets, 1815-2007," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 53-92 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Michael D. Bordo & John S. Landon-Lane, 2010. "The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08: Is it Unprecedented?," NBER Working Papers 16589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Alquist, Ron, 2010. "How important is liquidity risk for sovereign bond risk premia? Evidence from the London stock exchange," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 219-229, November.
    6. Martínez, Juan & Santiso, Javier, 2003. "Financial Markets and Politics: The Confidence Game in Latin American Emerging Economies," MPRA Paper 12909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Rockoff, Hugh & White, Eugene N., 2012. "Monetary Regimes and Policy on a Global Scale: The Oeuvre of Michael D. Bordo," MPRA Paper 49672, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2013.
    8. Cécile Couharde & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2011. "Chocs externes et perspective d'union monétaire en Asie de l'Est : les enseignements d'un modèle VAR structurel," Post-Print halshs-00632373, HAL.
    9. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P, 2003. "Common Vulnerabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Sonja Keller & Ashoka Mody, 2010. "International Pricing of Emerging Market Corporate Debt; Does the Corporate Matter?," IMF Working Papers 10/26, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2003. "Evidence of a worldwide stock market log-periodic anti-bubble since mid-2000," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 330(3), pages 543-583.
    12. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Teng, Kee Tuan, 2013. "Integration of world leaders and emerging powers into the Malaysian stock market: A DCC-MGARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 333-342.
    13. Volosovych, Vadym, 2011. "Measuring financial market integration over the long run: Is there a U-shape?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1535-1561.
    14. W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2002. "Evidence of a Worldwide Stock Market Log-Periodic Anti-Bubble Since Mid-2000," Papers cond-mat/0212010, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2003.
    15. Bordo, Michael D. & Murshid, Antu Panini, 2006. "Globalization and changing patterns in the international transmission of shocks in financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 655-674, June.
    16. Keskinsoy, Bilal, 2017. "Taxi, Takeoff and Landing: Behavioural Patterns of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 78129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Dennis P. Quinn & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2008. "A Century of Global Equity Market Correlations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 535-540, May.
    18. Dennis Quinn & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2010. "Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Openness and the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 7-39 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Geert Bekaert & Arnaud Mehl, 2017. "On the Global Financial Market Integration “Swoosh” and the Trilemma," NBER Working Papers 23124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Kris James Mitchener & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2009. "Are Hard Pegs Ever Credible in Emerging Markets? Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard," NBER Working Papers 15401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Céline Gimet, 2007. "L'impact des chocs externes dans les économies du Mercosur: un modèle VAR Structurel," Post-Print halshs-00356105, HAL.
    22. Hong-Ghi Min & Young-Soon Hwang, 2012. "Dynamic correlation analysis of US financial crisis and contagion: evidence from four OECD countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(24), pages 2063-2074, December.
    23. Hwang, Eugene & Min, Hong-Ghi & Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo, 2013. "Determinants of stock market comovements among US and emerging economies during the US financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 338-348.
    24. Michael D. Bordo & John S. Landon-Lane, 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis: Is It Unprecedented?," Chapters,in: Global Economic Crisis, chapter 2 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    25. repec:eco:journ1:2017-03-85 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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