IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v32y2015icp29-47.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The internationalisation of financial crises: Banking and currency crises 1883–2008

Author

Listed:
  • Dungey, Mardi
  • Jacobs, Jan P.A.M.
  • Lestano,

Abstract

Financial crises are high cost events which can transmit across international borders. Using data from 1883 to 2008, this article develops a means of mapping changes in the degree of international synchronisation of banking and currency crises through a formal concordance index. This index specifically accounts for the typically low incidence and potential serial correlation of crisis data. The results show that banking crises were highly internationalised at the beginning of the 20th century, and became far less so in the strong regulatory environment prevailing after the Depression until the 1980s. A strong increase in the synchronicity of international banking crises is revealed during the late 20th and early 21st century. Currency crises began the century as more idiosyncratic, but have tended to become more synchronised over the 115 year sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Lestano,, 2015. "The internationalisation of financial crises: Banking and currency crises 1883–2008," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 29-47.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:32:y:2015:i:c:p:29-47
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2015.01.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940815000042
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S. Goldberg, 2012. "Follow the Money: Quantifying Domestic Effects of Foreign Bank Shocks in the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 213-218, May.
    2. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
    3. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2011. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 86-95.
    4. Claessens, Stijn & Tong, Hui & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2012. "From the financial crisis to the real economy: Using firm-level data to identify transmission channels," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 375-387.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    6. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross‐Country Causes And Consequences Of The 2008 Crisis: International Linkages And American Exposure," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 340-363, August.
    7. Raddatz, Claudio & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2012. "On the international transmission of shocks: Micro-evidence from mutual fund portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 357-374.
    8. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent & Yesiltas, Sevcan, 2012. "Leverage across firms, banks, and countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 284-298.
    9. Geert Bekaert & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2597-2649, December.
    10. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
    11. Barkbu, Bergljot & Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka, 2012. "Financial crises and the multilateral response: What the historical record shows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 422-435.
    12. Dungey, Mardi & Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan, 2010. "Unobservable shocks as carriers of contagion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1008-1021, May.
    13. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, Spring/Su.
    14. Barry Eichengreen & Michael D. Bordo, 2003. "Crises now and then: what lessons from the last era of financial globalization?," Chapters, in: Paul Mizen (ed.), Monetary History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Garry J. Schinasi & Edwin M. Truman, 2010. "Reform of the Global Financial Architecture," Working Paper Series WP10-14, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    16. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, April.
    17. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Gary Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2012. "Getting Up to Speed on the Financial Crisis: A One-Weekend-Reader's Guide," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 128-150, March.
    19. Eichengreen, Barry, 2012. "Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199642472.
    20. Dungey Mardi & Matteo Luciani & David Veredas, "undated". "Googling SIFIs," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/154950, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    21. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2012. "External adjustment and the global crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 252-265.
    22. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    23. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    24. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database II," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 307-361, June.
    25. Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Reflections on Northern Rock: The Bank Run That Heralded the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 101-119, Winter.
    26. Stijn Claessens & Neeltje Van Horen, 2014. "Foreign Banks: Trends and Impact," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(s1), pages 295-326, February.
    27. Hale, Galina, 2012. "Bank relationships, business cycles, and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 312-325.
    28. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    29. Isard,Peter, 2005. "Globalization and the International Financial System," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521605076.
    30. Goodhart, Charles & Delargy, P J R, 1998. "Financial Crises: Plus ca Change, Plus C'est La Meme Chose," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 261-287, December.
    31. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    32. Gupta, Poonam & Mishra, Deepak & Sahay, Ratna, 2007. "Behavior of output during currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 428-450, July.
    33. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2003. "The Center and the Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Turmoil," NBER Working Papers 9479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Hutchison, Michael M & Noy, Ilan, 2005. "How Bad Are Twins? Output Costs of Currency and Banking Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 725-752, August.
    35. A. Craig Burnside & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2003. "On the Fiscal Implications of Twin Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 187-224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Isard,Peter, 2005. "Globalization and the International Financial System," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521843898.
    37. Michael Bordo & Anna Schwartz, 1996. "Why clashes between internal and external stability goals end in currency crises, 1797–1994," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 437-468, March.
    38. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Karl F Habermeier & Marcos d Chamon & Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Capital Inflows; The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/04, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Dimitrios Bisias & Mark Flood & Andrew W. Lo & Stavros Valavanis, 2012. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Analytics," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 255-296, October.
    40. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2008/224, International Monetary Fund.
    41. David Haugh & Patrice Ollivaud & David Turner, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Banking Crises in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 683, OECD Publishing.
    42. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    43. Shehzad, Choudhry Tanveer & De Haan, Jakob, 2013. "Was the 2007 crisis really a global banking crisis?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 113-124.
    44. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2006. "Bank concentration, competition, and crises: First results," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1581-1603, May.
    45. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    46. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:16:y:2001:i:32:p:51-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    47. Vance L. Martin & Mardi Dungey, 2007. "Unravelling financial market linkages during crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 89-119.
    48. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2003. "Spillovers through banking centers: a panel data analysis of bank flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 483-509, August.
    49. Bergljot Barkbu & Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2011. "International Financial Crises and the Multilateral Response: What the Historical Record Shows," NBER Working Papers 17361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. Shekhar Aiyar, 2012. "From Financial Crisis to Great Recession: The Role of Globalized Banks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 225-230, May.
    51. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank.
    52. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-1.
    53. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August.
    54. Agarwal, Manmohan & Walsh, Sean & Wang, Jing & Whalley, John & Yan, Chen, 2013. "Expected worsening or improving financial instability and the 2008 financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 92-105.
    55. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine A Pattillo, 2004. "Assessing Early Warning Systems; How Have they Worked in Practice?," IMF Working Papers 2004/052, International Monetary Fund.
    56. Eichengreen, Barry, 2002. "Financial Crises and What to Do About Them," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199257447.
    57. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 1999. "Is our Current International Economic Environment Unusually Crisis Prone?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: David Gruen & Luke Gower (ed.),Capital Flows and the International Financial System, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nyakabawo, Wendy & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-73.
    2. Krzysztof Jackowicz & Oskar Kowalewski & Łukasz Kozłowski, 2018. "Depositors Discipline through Interest Costs during Good and Bad Times: the Role of the Guarantor of Last Resort1," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 179-205, October.
    3. Dungey, Mardi & Gajurel, Dinesh, 2015. "Contagion and banking crisis – International evidence for 2007–2009," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 271-283.
    4. Jing, Zhongbo, 2015. "On the relation between currency and banking crises in developing countries, 1980–2010," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 267-291.
    5. Süer, Ömür & Levent, Haluk & Şen, Süleyman, 2016. "Foreign entry and the Turkish banking system in 2000s," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 420-435.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Caramazza, Francesco & Ricci, Luca & Salgado, Ranil, 2004. "International financial contagion in currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-70, February.
    3. Hamdaoui, Mekki, 2016. "Are systemic banking crises in developed and developing countries predictable?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 114-138.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    5. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
    6. Lin, Chin-Shien & Khan, Haider A. & Chang, Ruei-Yuan & Wang, Ying-Chieh, 2008. "A new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises: Can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1098-1121, November.
    7. Cuadro-Sáez, Lucía & Fratzscher, Marcel & Thimann, Christian, 2009. "The transmission of emerging market shocks to global equity markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 2-17, January.
    8. Huang, Chai Liang, 2020. "International stock market co-movements following US financial globalization," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 788-814.
    9. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    10. Zavkidjon Zavkiev, 2005. "Constructing A 2001 Social Accounting Matrix Of Tajikistan," CAMA Working Papers 2005-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Abdullah Yalama, 2012. "International Financial Contagion: The Role of the UK," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 26(2), pages 115-129.
    12. Seung M Choi & Laura E. Kodres & Jing Lu, 2018. "Friend or Foe? Cross-Border Linkages, Contagious Banking Crises, and “Coordinated” Macroprudential Policies," IMF Working Papers 2018/009, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Gonzalez-Hermosillo Gonzalez, B.M., 2008. "Transmission of shocks across global financial markets : The role of contagion and investors' risk appetite," Other publications TiSEM d684f3c7-7ad8-4e93-88cf-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, Spring/Su.
    15. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Hericourt, 2017. "The Circular Relationship Between Inequality, Leverage, And Financial Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 463-496, April.
    16. Jing, Zhongbo, 2015. "On the relation between currency and banking crises in developing countries, 1980–2010," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 267-291.
    17. Andrea Calef, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises: The Relationship Between Concentration and Interbank Connections," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2019-06, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    18. Goldstein, Itay & Razin, Assaf, 2015. "Three Branches of Theories of Financial Crises," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 10(2), pages 113-180, 30.
    19. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    20. Jing, Zhongbo & de Haan, Jakob & Jacobs, Jan & Yang, Haizhen, 2015. "Identifying banking crises using money market pressure: New evidence for a large set of countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-20.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises; Currency crisis; Banking crisis; Synchronisation; Concordance indices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:32:y:2015:i:c:p:29-47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nithya Sathishkumar). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.