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On the Fiscal Implications of Twin Crises

In: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Author

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  • A. Craig Burnside
  • Martin S. Eichenbaum
  • Sergio Rebelo

Abstract

This paper explores the implications of different strategies for financng the fiscal costs of twin crises for inflation and depreciation rates. We use a first-generation type model of speculative attacks which has four key features: (i) the crisis is triggered by prospective deficits; (ii) there exists outstanding non-indexed government debt issued prior to the crisis; (iii) a portion of the government's liabilities are not indexed to inflation; (iv) there are nontradeable goods and costs of distributing tradeable goods, so that the purchasing power parity does not hold. We show that the model can account for the high rates of devaluation and the moderate rates of inflation often observed in the wake of currency crises. We use our model and the data to interpret the recent currency crises in mexico and Korea. Our analysis suggests that the Mexican government is likely to pay for the bulk of the fiscal costs of its crisis through seignorage revenues. in contrast, the Korean government is likely to rely more on a combination of implicit and explicit fiscal reforms.
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Suggested Citation

  • A. Craig Burnside & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2003. "On the Fiscal Implications of Twin Crises," NBER Chapters,in: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 187-224 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:9651
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Buiter, Willem H., 1987. "Borrowing to defend the exchange rate and the timing and magnitude of speculative attacks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3-4), pages 221-239, November.
    2. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December.
    3. Dooley, Michael P, 2000. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 256-272, January.
    4. Menzie D. Chinn & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 1999. "International capital inflows, domestic financial intermediation and financial crises under imperfect information," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Is Financial Globalization Beneficial?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 259-294, March.
    2. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2006. "Government finance in the wake of currency crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 401-440, April.
    3. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2006. "Fiscal imbalances and the dynamics of currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1317-1338, July.
    4. Fabio Filipozzi & Kersti Harkmann, 2010. "The Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe: the Measures and Determinants of the Exchange Market Pressure Index and the Money Market Pressure Index," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 2(2).
    5. Renu Kohli & Kenneth Kletzer, 2001. "Financial Repression and Exchange Rate Management in Developing Countries; Theory and Empirical Evidence for India," IMF Working Papers 01/103, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Alexis Cruz-Rodríguez, 2014. "Is there a relationship between fiscal sustainability and currency crises? International evidence based on causality tests," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 7(1), pages 69-87, April.
    7. Burnside, Craig, 2004. "Currency crises and contingent liabilities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 25-52, January.
    8. Richard Hemming & Axel Schimmelpfennig & Michael Kell, 2003. "Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Occasional Papers 218, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Lestano,, 2015. "The internationalisation of financial crises: Banking and currency crises 1883–2008," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 29-47.
    10. Alexis Cruz Rodriguez, 2011. "Prediction of Currency Crises Using a Fiscal Sustainability Indicator," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 26(2), pages 39-60, December.
    11. Craig Burnside, 2004. "The Research Agenda: Craig Burnside on the Causes and Consequences of Twin Banking-Currency Crises," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), April.
    12. Irina Stanga, 2011. "Sovereign and Bank Credit Risk during the Global Financial Crisis," DNB Working Papers 314, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    13. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2015. "Sostenibilidad fiscal y crisis cambiarias: Un análisis empírico
      [Fiscal sustainability and currency crises: An empirical analysis]
      ," MPRA Paper 67741, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Cruz-Rodriguez, Alexis, 2014. "¿Puede un índice de sostenibilidad fiscal predecir la ocurrencia de crisis cambiarias? Evidencias para algunos países seleccionados
      [Can a fiscal sustainability indicator predict the occurrence of
      ," MPRA Paper 54103, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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