IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

An interest rate defense of a fixed exchange rate?

  • Flood, Robert P.
  • Jeanne, Olivier

Defending a government's exchange-rate commitment with active interest rate policy is not an option in the Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model of speculative attacks. In that model, the interest rate is the passive reflection of currency-depreciation expectations. In this paper we show how to adapt the KFG model to allow for an interest rate defence. It is shown that increasing domestic-currency interest rate makes domestic assets more attractive according to an asset substitution effect, but weakens the domestic currency by increasing the government's fiscal liabilities. As a result raising the interest rate hastens the speculative attack when speculation is motivated by underlying fiscal fragility.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 66 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 471-484

in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:66:y:2005:i:2:p:471-484
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  2. Robert P. Flood & Nancy P. Marion, 1998. "Self-Fulfilling Risk Predictions: An Application to Speculative Attacks," IMF Working Papers 98/124, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Buiter, Willem H., 1986. "Borrowing to Defend the Exchange Rate and the Timing and Magnitude of Speculative Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 95, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
  5. Burnside, C. & Eichenbaum, M. & Rebelo, S., 1998. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," RCER Working Papers 458, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Michael Woodford, 1995. "Price Level Determinacy Without Control of a Monetary Aggregate," NBER Working Papers 5204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Betty Daniel, 2000. "A Fiscal Theory of Currency Crises," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0535, Econometric Society.
  8. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Delaying the Inevitable: Optimal Interest Rate Policy and BOP Crises," NBER Working Papers 7734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K Rose, 1999. "Noise trading and exchange rate regimes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/2, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  10. Allan Drazen, 2003. "Interest Rate Defense against Speculative Attack as a Signal. A Primer," NBER Chapters, in: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 37-60 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Timothy D. Lane & Marianne Schulze-Gattas & T. M. Tsikata & Steven Phillips & Atish R. Ghosh & A. Javier Hamann, 1999. "IMF-Supported Programs in Indonesia, Korea and Thailand," IMF Occasional Papers 178, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Papers 7418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Kraay, Aart, 2000. "Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2267, The World Bank.
  14. Ilan Goldfajn & Taimur Baig, 1999. "Monetary policy in the aftermath of currency crisis: the case of Asia," Textos para discussão 399, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  15. Cuthbertson, Keith & Galindo, Luis, 1999. "The Demand for Money in Mexico," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(2), pages 154-66, March.
  16. Allan Drazen & Elhanan Helpman, 1987. "Stabilization with Exchange Rate Management," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(4), pages 835-855.
  17. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1984. "Gold Monetization and Gold Discipline," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 90-107, February.
  18. Bensaid, Bernard & Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "The instability of fixed exchange rate systems when raising the nominal interest rate is costly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1461-1478, August.
  19. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:117:y:2002:i:2:p:537-569 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1987. "Fiscal Deficits, Exchange Rate Crises and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 2130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  22. Andrew Berg, 1999. "The Asia Crisis: Causes, Policy Responses, and Outcomes," IMF Working Papers 99/138, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Nancy P. Marion & Robert P. Flood, 1998. "Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," IMF Working Papers 98/130, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
  26. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2003. "Delaying the Inevitable: Interest Rate Defense and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 404-424, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:66:y:2005:i:2:p:471-484. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.