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On the fiscal implications of twin crises

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Abstract

This paper explores the implications of different strategies for financing the fiscal cost of twin crises for inflation and depreciation rates. We use a first-generation type model of speculative attacks which has four key features: (i) the crisis is triggered by prospective deficits, (ii) there exists outstanding non-indexed government debt issued prior to the crises; (iii) a portion of the government's liabilities are not indexed to inflation; and (iv) there are nontradable goods and costs of distributing tradable goods, so that purchasing power parity does not hold. We show that the model can account for the high rates of devaluation and moderate rates of inflation often observed in the wake of currency crises. We use our model and the data to interpret the recent currency crises in Mexico and Korea. Our analysis suggest that the Mexican government is likely to pay for the bulk of the fiscal costs of its crisis through seignorage revenues. In contrast, the Korean government is likely to rely more on a combination of implicit and explicit fiscal reforms .

Suggested Citation

  • Craig Burnside & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001. "On the fiscal implications of twin crises," Working Paper Series WP-01-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-01-02
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    Cited by:

    1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Is Financial Globalization Beneficial?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 259-294, March.
    2. Laura Alfaro & Gonzalo Asis & Anusha Chari & Ugo Panizza, 2017. "Lessons Unlearned? Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 23407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2006. "Government finance in the wake of currency crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 401-440, April.
    4. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2006. "Fiscal imbalances and the dynamics of currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1317-1338, July.
    5. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Is Financial Globalization Beneficial?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 259-294, March.
    6. Holland, Marcio & Marçal, Emerson & de Prince, Diogo, 2020. "Is fiscal policy effective in Brazil? An empirical analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 40-52.
    7. Alexis Cruz-Rodríguez, 2014. "Is there a relationship between fiscal sustainability and currency crises? International evidence based on causality tests," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 7(1), pages 69-87, April.
    8. Ms. Renu Kohli & Kenneth Kletzer, 2001. "Financial Repression and Exchange Rate Management in Developing Countries: Theory and Empirical Evidence for India," IMF Working Papers 2001/103, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Lestano,, 2015. "The internationalisation of financial crises: Banking and currency crises 1883–2008," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 29-47.
    10. Craig Burnside, 2004. "The Research Agenda: Craig Burnside on the Causes and Consequences of Twin Banking-Currency Crises," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), April.
    11. Irina Stanga, 2011. "Sovereign and Bank Credit Risk during the Global Financial Crisis," DNB Working Papers 314, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    12. Qamar Abbas & Li Junqing & Muhammad Ramzan & Sumbal Fatima, 2021. "Role of Governance in Debt-Growth Relationship: Evidence from Panel Data Estimations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, May.
    13. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    14. Fabio Filipozzi & Kersti Harkmann, 2010. "The Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe: the Measures and Determinants of the Exchange Market Pressure Index and the Money Market Pressure Index," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 2(2).
    15. Malgorzata Sulimierska, 2008. "Capital Account Liberalization and Currency Crisis - The Case of Central Eastern European Countries," International Trade and Finance Association Conference Papers 1140, International Trade and Finance Association.
    16. Burnside, Craig, 2004. "Currency crises and contingent liabilities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 25-52, January.
    17. Alexis Cruz Rodriguez, 2011. "Prediction of Currency Crises Using a Fiscal Sustainability Indicator," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 26(2), pages 39-60, December.
    18. Zhengyang Jiang, 2019. "US Fiscal Cycle and the Dollar," 2019 Meeting Papers 667, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2015. "Sostenibilidad fiscal y crisis cambiarias: Un análisis empírico [Fiscal sustainability and currency crises: An empirical analysis]," MPRA Paper 67741, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Cruz-Rodriguez, Alexis, 2014. "¿Puede un índice de sostenibilidad fiscal predecir la ocurrencia de crisis cambiarias? Evidencias para algunos países seleccionados [Can a fiscal sustainability indicator predict the occurrence of ," MPRA Paper 54103, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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