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Lessons Unlearned? Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets

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  • Laura Alfaro
  • Gonzalo Asis
  • Anusha Chari
  • Ugo Panizza

Abstract

This paper documents a set of new stylized facts about leverage and financial fragility for emerging market firms following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Corporate debt vulnerability indicators during the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) attributed to corporate financial roots provide a benchmark for comparison. Firm-level data show that post-GFC, emerging market corporate balance sheet indicators have not deteriorated to AFC crisis-country levels. However, more countries are close to or in the “vulnerable” range of Altman’s Z-score, and average leverage for the entire emerging market sample is higher in the post-GFC period than during the AFC. Regression estimates suggest that the relationship between leverage, exchange rate depreciations, and corporate financial distress is time varying. Also, a central finding is that firm size is correlated with corporate distress and, further, that currency depreciations amplify the impact of leverage on financial vulnerability for large firms during a crisis. Consistent with Gabaix (2011) the paper finds a granularity effect in that large firms are systemically important—idiosyncratic shocks to the sales growth of large firms significantly correlate with GDP growth in our emerging markets sample. Relatedly, the sales growth of large firms with higher leverage is more adversely impacted by exchange rate shocks. While this result holds for the average country in our sample, there is substantial cross-country heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Alfaro & Gonzalo Asis & Anusha Chari & Ugo Panizza, 2017. "Lessons Unlearned? Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 23407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23407
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    Cited by:

    1. Yi Huang & Ugo Panizza & Richard Portes, 2018. "Corporate Foreign Bond Issuance and Interfirm Loans in China," NBER Working Papers 24513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Frank Ranganai Matenda & Mabutho Sibanda & Eriyoti Chikodza & Victor Gumbo, 2022. "Bankruptcy prediction for private firms in developing economies: a scoping review and guidance for future research," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(4), pages 927-966, December.
    3. Ryan Banerjee & Boris Hofmann & Aaron Mehrotra, 2022. "Corporate investment and the exchange rate: The financial channel," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 296-312, December.
    4. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2020. "Currency Depreciation and Emerging Market Corporate Distress," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(5), pages 1935-1961, May.
    5. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    6. Mariya Gubareva & Maria Rosa Borges, 2022. "Governed by the cycle: interest rate sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 991-1019, June.
    7. Daniel O. Beltran & Keshav Garud & Aaron Rosenblum, 2017. "Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Debt : How Concerned Should We Be?," IFDP Notes 2017-06-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Xiaoyu Liu & Xiaoli Chen, 2021. "Can “Concerted” Macroprudential Policies Mitigate Cross‐border Contagion of Financial Risks? Evidence from China and Its Financially Connected Economies," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(3), pages 26-54, May.
    9. Kara, Alper & Hacihasanoglu, Yavuz Selim & Unalmis, Deren, 2021. "Financial contagion and the role of firm characteristics," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    10. Santi Novita, 2018. "Industry and Financial Crises in Fragile and Zombie Firms: Does Leverage Matter?," GATR Journals jber157, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.
    11. Abraham,Facundo & Cortina Lorente,Juan Jose & Schmukler,Sergio L., 2020. "Growth of Global Corporate Debt : Main Facts and Policy Challenges," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9394, The World Bank.
    12. Jerome H. Powell, 2017. "Prospects for Emerging Market Economies in a Normalizing Global Economy : a speech at the 2017 Annual Membership Meeting of the Institute of International Finance, Washington, D.C., October 12, 2017," Speech 976, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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