Lessons Unlearned? Corporate Debt in Emerging Markets
This paper documents a set of stylized facts about leverage and financial fragility in the non-financial corporate sector in emerging markets since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Corporate debt vulnerability indicators prior to the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) attributed to corporate financial roots provide a benchmark for comparison. The firm-level data suggest that emerging markets post-GFC have lower leverage ratios than the five Asian crisis countries (Asian Five) in the run-up to the AFC. However, a broader set of emerging market countries show weaker liquidity, solvency, and profitability indicators. More countries are also in the Altman Z-score's “grey zone”, that is, at risk for corporate distress. Regression estimates confirm that leading up to the AFC and in the aftermath of the GFC, firms with higher leverage have Z-scores that are closer to the financial distress range. The data also corroborate two macro-related hypotheses: first, that leverage interacted with currency depreciation had a statistically significant adverse impact on Z-scores in pre-AFC; and second, that in countries with higher GDP growth leverage is correlated with less corporate financial fragility. Consistent with Gabaix (2011) the paper finds a granularity effect in that large firms are systemically important—idiosyncratic shocks to large firms significantly correlate with GDP growth in our emerging markets sample. Also, the more-levered large firms are more vulnerable to exchange rate shocks than smaller firms with comparable levels of leverage. While this result holds for the average country in our sample, there is substantial cross-country heterogeneity.
|Date of creation:||May 2017|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marco Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008.
"An Anatomy of Credit Booms; Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data,"
IMF Working Papers
08/226, International Monetary Fund.
- Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An anatomy of credit booms: evidence from macro aggregates and micro data," International Finance Discussion Papers 936, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2008. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado About Nothing?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 612-626, November.
- Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2002. "Corporate dollar debt and depreciations: much ado about nothing?," Working Papers 02-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2005. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado about Nothing?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6693, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2005. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado About Nothing?," Research Department Publications 4411, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Matti Keloharju & Mervi Niskanen, 2001. "Why Do Firms Raise Foreign Currency Denominated Debt? Evidence from Finland," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 7(4), pages 481-496.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8973.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 2009. "The Second Great Contraction," MPRA Paper 21485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2015. "Two Tales of Adjustment: East Asian Lessons for European Growth," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(1), pages 164-196, May.
- Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2014. "Two Tales of Adjustment: East Asian Lessons for European Growth," NBER Working Papers 19840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2014. "Two Tales of Adjustment: East Asian Lessons for European Growth," Working Papers 14-04, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Caballero, Julian & Panizza, Ugo & Powell, Andrew, 2015. "The second wave of global liquidity: Why are firms acting like financial intermediaries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10926, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Julian Caballero & Ugo Panizza & Andrew Powell, 2015. "The second wave of global liquidity: Why are firms acting like financial intermediaries?," IHEID Working Papers 21-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
- Julián Caballero & Ugo Panizza & Andrew Powell, 2016. "The Second Wave of Global Liquidity: Why Are Firms Acting Like Financial Intermediaries?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 94220, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
- Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. & Roubini, N., 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Papers 343, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 343, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, 05.
- Xavier Gabaix, 2005. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," 2005 Meeting Papers 470, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Xavier Gabaix, 2009. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 15286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Allayannis, George & Weston, James P, 2001. "The Use of Foreign Currency Derivatives and Firm Market Value," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 243-276.
- Galindo, Arturo & Panizza, Ugo & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of currency depreciation: a summary of the micro evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 330-339, December.
- Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
- Altman, Edward I., 2005. "An emerging market credit scoring system for corporate bonds," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 311-323, December.
- Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Dollar credit to emerging market economies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
- Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Global dollar credit and carry trades: a firm-level analysis," BIS Working Papers 510, Bank for International Settlements. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23407. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.