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Currency Depreciation and Emerging Market Corporate Distress

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  • Valentina Bruno

    (American University, Washington, District of Columbia 20016)

  • Hyun Song Shin

    (Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Basel-Stadt 4002, Switzerland)

Abstract

How do emerging market corporates fare during periods of currency depreciation? We find that nonfinancial firms that exploit favorable global financing conditions to issue U.S. dollar bonds and build cash balances are also those whose share price is most vulnerable to local currency depreciation. In particular, firms’ vulnerability to currency depreciation derives less from the foreign currency debt as such, and more from the cash balances that are built up by using foreign currency debt. Overall, our results point to a financial motive for dollar bond issuance by emerging market firms in carry trade–like transactions that leave them vulnerable in an environment of dollar strength.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2020. "Currency Depreciation and Emerging Market Corporate Distress," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(5), pages 1935-1961, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:66:y:2020:i:5:p:1935-1961
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2018.3280
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    5. Bo Jiang & Tahsin Saadi Sedik, 2019. "The Turning Tide: How Vulnerable are Asian Corporates?," IMF Working Papers 2019/093, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Calomiris, Charles W. & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomas, 2022. "Large international corporate bonds: Investor behavior and firm responses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Ronald C. Anderson & Mikael C. Bergbrant & Delroy M. Hunter & David M. Reeb, 2023. "Are founding families less willing to bear risk? Evidence from the currency exposure and internationalization strategy of family firms," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 41-66, March.
    8. Bryan Hardy & Felipe Saffie, 2019. "From carry trades to trade credit: financial intermediation by non-financial corporations," BIS Working Papers 773, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Alessandro Rebucci & Jonathan S. Hartley & Daniel Jiménez, 2022. "An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 291-322, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    10. Jin, Jing & Liao, Rose C. & Loureiro, Gilberto, 2021. "The diverse effects of currency crises on multinational and local firms: The use of foreign currency debt," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Dao, Mai Chi & Minoiu, Camelia & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2021. "Corporate investment and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    12. Mateane, Lebogang, 2020. "Risk preferences, global market conditions and foreign debt: Is there any role for the currency composition of FX reserves?," EconStor Preprints 227484, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    13. Harendra Behera & Rajiv Ranjan & Sajjid Chinoy, 2022. "Does offshore NDF market influence onshore forex market? Evidence from India," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(6), pages 1167-1185, June.
    14. Linde, Jesper & Adrian, Tobias & Erceg, Christopher J. & Zabczyk, Pawel & Zhou, Jianping, 2020. "A Quantitative Model for the Integrated Policy Framework," CEPR Discussion Papers 15065, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Wim Boonstra, 2022. "What we know on Central Bank Digital Currencies (so far)," NBG Working Papers 01/2022, National Bank of Georgia.
    16. Sérgio Leão & Rafael Schiozer & Raquel F. Oliveira & Gustavo Araujo, 2022. "Lending Relationships and Currency Hedging," Working Papers Series 565, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    17. Maria Paula Vieira Cicogna & Rudinei Toneto Jr & Mauricio Ribeiro do Valle & Wilson Tarantin Junior, 2021. "The Predominance of Balance Sheet Effect versus Competitiveness Effect of Exchange Rate on Brazilian Companies," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(12), pages 107-107, December.
    18. Owusu Junior, Peterson & Alagidede, Imhotep, 2020. "Risks in emerging markets equities: Time-varying versus spatial risk analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 542(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    emerging market corporate debt; currency mismatch; liability dollarization; global financial conditions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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