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Global financial cycle, household credit, and macroprudential policies

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Abstract

We show that macroprudential policies dampen the impact of global financial conditions on local bank credit cycles. For identification, we exploit variation in the U.S. VIX and household and business credit registers in an emerging market economy where banks depend on foreign funding and macroprudential measures vary over the full cycle. Our results suggest that when the VIX is low, tighter macroprudential policies reduce household lending, notably for riskier (FX and high DSTI) loans and by banks dependent on foreign funding. Moreover, they increase (less regulated) local currency lending to real estate firms, while leaving business lending to other firms unchanged. Such periods are associated with less subsequent total lending to households and firms and with a lower share of FX loans at the local level. Consistently, when the VIX is low, tighter macroprudential policies dampen house prices and economic activity.

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  • Mircea Epure & Irina Mihai & Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró, 2017. "Global financial cycle, household credit, and macroprudential policies," Economics Working Papers 1590, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2023.
  • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1590
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    3. Fatma Pinar Erdem Kucukbicakci & Etkin Ozen & Ibrahim Unalmis, 2020. "Are Macroprudential Policies Effective Tools to Reduce Credit Growth in Emerging Markets?," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 73-89, June.
    4. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate, 2019. "Global liquidity, house prices and policy responses," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 79-96.
    5. Sjoerd Van Bekkum & Marc Gabarro & Rustom M. Irani & José-Luis Peydró, 2019. "Take It to the limit? The effects of household leverage caps," Economics Working Papers 1682, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2022.
    6. Becker, Chris & Ossandon Busch, Matias & Tonzer, Lena, 2021. "Macroprudential policy and intra-group dynamics: The effects of reserve requirements in Brazil," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Erlend Nier & Radu Popa & Maral Shamloo & Liviu Voinea, 2019. "Debt Service and Default: Calibrating Macroprudential Policy Using Micro Data," IMF Working Papers 2019/182, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Knut Are Aastveit & Ragnar Enger Juelsrud & Ella Getz Wold, 2021. "The household effects of mortgage regulation," Working Papers No 07/2021, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.

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    Keywords

    macroprudential policies; global financial cycle; cross-border spillovers; household credit; bank loans;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance

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