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Household Credit, Global Financial Cycle, and Macroprudential Policies: Credit Register Evidence from an Emerging Country

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  • Mircea Epure
  • Irina Mihai
  • Camelia Minoiu
  • José-Luis Peydró

Abstract

We analyze the effects of macroprudential policies on local bank credit cycles and their interactions with international financial conditions. To this end, we exploit the comprehensive credit register containing all bank loans to individuals in Romania, a small open economy subject to external shocks. Our sample period from 2004 until 2012 covers a full boom-bust credit cycle during which a wide range of macroprudential measures were deployed. Our results show that tighter macroprudential conditions are associated with a significant decline in household credit, with substantially stronger effects for FX loans than for local currency loans. The effects on FX loans are higher for: (i) ex-ante riskier borrowers proxied by higher debt-service-to-income ratios and (ii) banks with greater reliance on foreign funding. Furthermore, tighter macroprudential policy has stronger dampening effects on FX lending when global risk appetite is high and foreign monetary policy is expansionary. Quantitative effects are in general larger for borrower rather than lender macroprudential policies. Overall, the results suggest that macroprudential policies are effective in mitigating bank risk-taking in household lending over the local bank credit and global financial cycles and have important implications for theory and policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mircea Epure & Irina Mihai & Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró, 2017. "Household Credit, Global Financial Cycle, and Macroprudential Policies: Credit Register Evidence from an Emerging Country," Working Papers 1006, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1006
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    3. Erlend Nier & Radu Popa & Maral Shamloo & Liviu Voinea, 2019. "Debt Service and Default: Calibrating Macroprudential Policy Using Micro Data," IMF Working Papers 2019/182, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate, 2019. "Global liquidity, house prices and policy responses," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 79-96.
    5. Juliana Dutra Araujo & Manasa Patnam & Adina Popescu & Fabian Valencia & Weijia Yao, 2020. "Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from Over 6,000 Estimates," IMF Working Papers 2020/067, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Fatma Pinar Erdem Kucukbicakci & Etkin Ozen & Ibrahim Unalmis, 2020. "Are Macroprudential Policies Effective Tools to Reduce Credit Growth in Emerging Markets?," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 73-89, June.
    7. Van Bekkum, Sjoerd & Gabarró, Marc & Irani, Rustom & Peydró, José-Luis, 2019. "Take It to the Limit? The Effects of Household Leverage Caps," EconStor Preprints 216797, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. Zohair Alam & Adrian Alter & Jesse Eiseman & Gaston G Gelos & Heedon Kang & Machiko Narita & Erlend Nier & Naixi Wang, 2019. "Digging Deeper--Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database," IMF Working Papers 2019/066, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Contreras, Alex & Gondo, Rocío & Oré, Erick & Pérez, Fernando, 2019. "Evaluando el impacto de las medidas de desdolarización del crédito en el Perú," Working Papers 2019-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    10. Ma, Chang & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2019. "Capital Controls: A Survey of the New Literature," CEPR Discussion Papers 14186, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Nitzan Tzur-Ilan, 2019. "Macroprudential Policy: Implementation, Effects, And Lessons," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 17(1), pages 39-71.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroprudential policies; global financial cycle; cross-border spillovers; household credit; bank loans;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance

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