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Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Bianchi

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

  • Enrique Mendoza

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

Collateral constraints widely used in models of financial crises feature a pecuniary externality: Agents do not internalize how borrowing decisions taken in “good times" affect collateral prices during a crisis. We show that agents in a competitive equilibrium borrow more than a financial regulator who internalizes this externality. We also find, however, that under commitment the regulator's plans are time-inconsistent, and hence focus on studying optimal, time-consistent policy without commitment. This policy features a state-contingent macroprudential debt tax that is strictly positive at date t if a crisis has positive probability at t + 1. Quantitatively, this policy reduces sharply the frequency and magnitude of crises, removes fat tails from the distribution of returns, and increases social welfare. In contrast, constant debt taxes are ineffective and can be welfare-reducing, while an optimized macroprudential Taylor rule" is effective but less so than the optimal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Bianchi & Enrique Mendoza, 2015. "Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy," PIER Working Paper Archive 15-032, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Aug 2015.
  • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:15-032
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises; macroprudential policy; systemic risk; collateral constraints;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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