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Regulating Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: An Externality View

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  • Anton Korinek

Abstract

We show that capital flows to emerging market economies create externalities that differ by an order of magnitude depending on the state-contingent payoff profile of the flows. Those with pro-cyclical payoffs, such as foreign currency debt, generate substantial negative pecuniary externalities because they lead to large repayments and contractionary exchange rate depreciations during financial crises. Conversely, capital flows with an insurance component, such as FDI or equity, are largely benign. We construct an externality pricing kernel and use sufficient statistics and DSGE model simulations to quantify the externalities that materialized during past financial crises. We find stark differences depending on the payoff profile, justifying taxes of up to 3% for dollar debt but close to zero for FDI. These findings contrast with the existing literature, which has suggested that policymakers should focus on reducing over-borrowing rather than changing the composition of external liabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Anton Korinek, 2017. "Regulating Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: An Externality View," NBER Working Papers 24152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24152
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    Cited by:

    1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2018. "Exchange rate misalignment, capital flows, and optimal monetary policy trade-offs," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87290, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola & Sylvain Leduc, 2018. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Capital Flows, and Optimal Monetary Policy Trade-off," Discussion Papers 1806, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    3. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2018. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Capital Flows, and Optimal Monetary Policy Trade-offs," CEPR Discussion Papers 12850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Corsetti, G. & Dedola, L. & Leduc, S., 2018. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Capital Flows, and Optimal Monetary Policy Trade-offs," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1822, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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