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Debt- and Equity-Led Capital Flow Episodes


  • Kristin J. Forbes
  • Francis E. Warnock


Forbes and Warnock (2012) identify episodes of extreme capital flow movements--surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment--and find that global factors, especially global risk, are significantly associated with extreme capital flow episodes whereas domestic macroeconomic characteristics and capital controls are less important. That analysis leads naturally to the question of which types of capital flows are driving the episodes and if debt- and equity-led episodes differ in material ways. After identifying debt- and equity-led episodes, we find that most episodes of extreme capital flow movements around the world are debt-led and the factors associated with debt-led episodes are similar to the factors behind episodes identified with aggregate capital flow data. In contrast, equity-led episodes are less frequent, more idiosyncratic, and differ in nature from other episodes.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristin J. Forbes & Francis E. Warnock, 2012. "Debt- and Equity-Led Capital Flow Episodes," NBER Working Papers 18329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18329
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Milan Nedeljkovic & Gonzalo Varela & Michele Savini Zangrandi, 2015. "Indonesia Current Account Assessment," World Bank Other Operational Studies 22340, The World Bank.
    2. Davis, J. Scott, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of debt- and equity-based capital inflows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 81-95.
    3. Jonathan Scott Davis, 2017. "External debt and monetary policy autonomy," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 53-63, April.
    4. Ayala, Diana & Nedeljkovic, Milan & Saborowski, Christian, 2017. "What slice of the pie? The corporate bond market boom in emerging economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 16-35.
    5. repec:eee:finlet:v:23:y:2017:i:c:p:239-245 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Avdjiev, Stefan & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Goldberg, Linda S. & Schiaffi, Stefano, 2017. "The shifting drivers of global liquidity," Staff Reports 819, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Jonathan Scott Davis, 2017. "External debt and monetary policy autonomy," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 35(82), pages 53-63, April.
    8. Andreas Hoffmann, 2014. "Zero-interest Rate Policy and Unintended Consequences in Emerging Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(10), pages 1367-1387, October.
    9. Konopczak, Michal, 2015. "Government debt holdings of non-residents – an analysis of the impact on selected emerging economies’ sovereign risk," MPRA Paper 68597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gauvin, L. & McLoughlin, C. & Reinhardt, D., 2013. "Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows," Working papers 435, Banque de France.
    11. Hoffmann, Andreas & Löffler, Axel, 2014. "Low interest rate policy and the use of reserve requirements in emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 307-314.
    12. repec:chb:bcchec:v:18:y:2015:i:1:p:50-66 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Huber, Florian & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "The shortage of safe assets in the US investment portfolio: Some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 318-336.
    14. Elod Takats & Judit Temesvary, 2016. "The currency dimension of the bank lending channel in international monetary transmission," BIS Working Papers 600, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Benedetta Bianchi, 2016. "Sovereign Risk Premia and the International Balance Sheet: Lessons from the European Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 471-493, July.
    16. Elod Takats & Judit Temesvary, 2017. "Can Macroprudential Measures Make Cross-Border Lending More Resilient? Lessons from the Taper Tantrum," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-123, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2016. "Quantitative easing and the post-crisis surge in financial flows to developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 331-357.
    18. Reinhardt, Dennis & Dell'Erba, Salvatore, 2013. "Not all capital waves are alike: a sector-level examination of surges in FDI inflows," Bank of England working papers 474, Bank of England.
    19. repec:chb:bcchec:v:20:y:2017:i:2:p:004-041 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Eugenio M Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Damien Puy, 2015. "Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets; Why Knowing Your Lender Matters More Than Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 15/127, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Peter Montiel, 2014. "Capital Flows: Issues and Policies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 595-633, July.
    22. Philip Lane, 2013. "International Capital Flows and Domestic Financial Conditions: Lessons for Emerging Asia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp438, IIIS.
    23. Vukan Vujic, 2015. "Internal capital markets and crisis transmission: evidence from foreign bank subsidiaries in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 39-56.
    24. Kaminska, Iryna & Roberts-Sklar, Matt, 2015. "A global factor in variance risk premia and local bond pricing," Bank of England working papers 576, Bank of England.
    25. Joyce, Joseph, 2015. "External Balance Sheets as Countercyclical Crisis Buffers," MPRA Paper 66039, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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