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A New Taxonomy of Sudden Stops: Which Sudden Stops Should Countries Be Most Concerned About?

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  • Eduardo A. Cavallo

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  • Andrew Powell

    ()

  • Mathieu Pedemonte
  • Pilar Tavella

Abstract

This paper proposes a new taxonomy of Sudden Stops comprised of seven categories with definitions depending on the behavior of gross and net capital flows. The incidence of different types of Sudden Stops is tracked over time and the type of Sudden Stop related to economic performance. Sudden Stops in Net Flows associated with reductions in Gross Inflows are more disruptive than those where surges in (only) Gross Outflows dominate. The paper further discusses the mechanisms that might result in Sudden Stops in Gross Flows that are not Sudden Stops in Net Flows, such that shifts in financial assets or liabilities do not require a sharp current account adjustment. Still, it is found that Sudden Stops in Gross Inflows that do not provoke a sharp contraction in Net Flows may also be disruptive, including Sudden Stops that are driven by 'other flows' -which include banking flows. The results suggest new avenues for research and future policy analysis.

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  • Eduardo A. Cavallo & Andrew Powell & Mathieu Pedemonte & Pilar Tavella, 2013. "A New Taxonomy of Sudden Stops: Which Sudden Stops Should Countries Be Most Concerned About?," Research Department Publications IDB-WP-430, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:idb-wp-430
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    Cited by:

    1. Levan Efremidze & John Rutledge & Thomas D. Willett, 2016. "Capital Flow Surges As Bubbles: Behavioral Finance And Mckinnon’S Over-Borrowing Syndrome Extended," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-27, June.
    2. repec:wsi:jicepx:v:06:y:2015:i:02:n:s1793993315500088 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spr:weltar:v:154:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10290-017-0301-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Cavallo, Eduardo & Powell, Andrew & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Tavella, Pilar, 2015. "A new taxonomy of Sudden Stops: Which Sudden Stops should countries be most concerned about?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 47-70.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta, 2018. "Managing Sudden Stops," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Enrique G. Mendoza & Ernesto Pastén & Diego Saravia (ed.), Monetary Policy and Global Spillovers: Mechanisms, Effects and Policy Measures, edition 1, volume 25, chapter 2, pages 009-047 Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Jimena Zuniga, 2015. "Varieties of Capital Flows: What Do We Know?," CID Working Papers 296, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    7. Eduardo Cavallo & Barry Eichengreen & Ugo Panizza, 2018. "Can countries rely on foreign saving for investment and economic development?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(2), pages 277-306, May.
    8. Manuel R. Agosin & Juan Díaz-Maureira & Mohit Karnani, 2016. "Sudden stops of capital flows: Do foreign assets behave differently from foreign liabilities?," Working Papers wp436, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    9. Ben Smit & Christelle Grobler & Carmen Nel, 2014. "Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals: Potential Macroeconomic Consequences for South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(4), pages 616-627, December.
    10. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," Working Paper Series WP15-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    11. Masyita Crystallin & Levan Efremidze & Sungsoo Kim & Wahyu Nugroho & Ozan Sula & Thomas Willett, 2015. "How Common are Capital Flows Surges? How They are Measured Matters -a Lot," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 663-682, September.
    12. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Fernández-Arias, Eduardo & Powell, Andrew, 2014. "Is the Euro-zone on the Mend? Latin American examples to analyze the Euro question," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 243-257.
    13. Bruno Bonizzi & Christina Laskaridis & Jan Toporowski, 2015. "Developing Countries’ External Debt and International Financial Integration," Working papers wpaper121, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    14. Eduardo Olaberría, 2015. "US Long-Term Interest Rates and Capital Flows to Emerging Economies," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-32.
    15. Beatrice D. Scheubel & Livio Stracca, 2016. "What Do We Know About the Global Financial Safety Net? A New Comprehensive Data Set," CESifo Working Paper Series 6184, CESifo Group Munich.
    16. Muhammad, Ejaz, 2017. "The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," MPRA Paper 83270, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    17. Fabio Comelli, 2015. "Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops; Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other?," IMF Working Papers 15/138, International Monetary Fund.
    18. repec:chb:bcchec:v:20:y:2017:i:2:p:004-041 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Scheubel, Beatrice & Herrala, Risto & Stracca, Livio, 2016. "What do we know about the global financial safety net? Data, rationale and possible evolution," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145676, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Carolina Alves & Vivienne Boufounou & Konstantinos Dellis & Christos Pitelis & Jan Toporowski, 2016. "Synthesis Report; Empirical analysis for new ways of global engagement," Working papers wpaper163, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    21. Stracca, Livio & Scheubel, Beatrice, 2016. "What do we know about the global financial safety net? Rationale, data and possible evolution," Occasional Paper Series 177, European Central Bank.
    22. Marta Rubio-Codina & Orazio Attanasio & Costas Meghir & Natalia Varela & Sally Grantham-McGregor, 2015. "The Socioeconomic Gradient of Child Development: Cross-Sectional Evidence from Children 6–42 Months in Bogota," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 464-483.
    23. Powell, Jerome H., 2017. "Prospects for Emerging Market Economies in a Normalizing Global Economy : a speech at the 2017 Annual Membership Meeting of the Institute of International Finance, Washington, D.C., October 12, 2017," Speech 976, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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