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Ride the wild surf : an investigation of the drivers of surges in capital inflows

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  • Calderon, Cesar
  • Kubota, Megumi

Abstract

Over the past 15 years, gross inflows to industrial and developing countries have enjoyed a wild ride. After reaching record highs in the run-up to the global financial crisis, they collapsed dramatically in 2008-09. As signs of global recovery reappeared, capital inflows resumed although at different speeds. The recovery in flows was faster and sharper in developing countries. This paper aims at understanding the (domestic and external) drivers of these surges in gross inflows using quarterly data for 67 countries from 1975 to 2010. It finds that domestic and external factors have significant explanatory power in driving surges of inflows. This finding holds for the sample of industrial countries whereas domestic factors play a significantly larger role in explaining surges to developing countries. Zooming into the findings shows that: (a) financial booms tend to attract massive capital inflows, (b) surges to either industrial or developing countries are driven by regional contagion, and (c) strong growth and natural resource abundance are keys to attract inflows of foreign capital into developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2014. "Ride the wild surf : an investigation of the drivers of surges in capital inflows," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6753, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6753
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    4. Yang Yang & Haizhen Yang & Mengting Zhang, 2021. "A Cross-Country Analysis on Capital Flows Cycle: Stylized Facts and Regional Synchronization," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 11(5), pages 347-364, May.
    5. Li, Suxiao & de Haan, Jakob & Scholtens, Bert, 2018. "Cyclical behavior of international fund flows," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 99-112.
    6. Donny TANG, 2020. "What determines the portfolio investment flows to Central and Eastern European Countries in the European Union 2001-2017?," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(625), W), pages 21-42, Winter.
    7. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2018. "Does higher openness cause more real exchange rate volatility?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 176-204.
    8. Joyce, Joseph, 2019. "The sources of international investment income in emerging market economies," MPRA Paper 96568, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt Markets; Emerging Markets; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Economic Theory&Research; Macroeconomic Management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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