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Capital Inflow Surges in Emerging Economies: How Worried Should LAC Be?

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  • Andrew Powell

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  • Pilar Tavella

Abstract

This paper analyzes capital inflow surges in emerging economies from 1980 to 2005. Estimated probit models are used, which discriminate well between surges associated with banking crises or recessions, and those surges that end without such events. The results indicate that the composition of inflows and the extent of financial reform are significant determinants of outcomes. Estimated models are applied to the Latin American post-2005 inflow surge and find relatively high estimated probabilities for banking crises and recessions. This suggests that recent inflow surges characterized by high portfolio and banking inflows are a potential cause for concern and that the results constitute a prima facie case for macro prudential interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Powell & Pilar Tavella, 2012. "Capital Inflow Surges in Emerging Economies: How Worried Should LAC Be?," Research Department Publications 4782, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4782
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    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Borensztein & Fabiano Bastos & Julián Caballero & Bernardita Piedrabuena, 2013. "Capital Flows to South America. An Overview," PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS 011436, FONDO LATINO AMERICANO DE RESERVAS - FLAR.
    2. Paulo Bastos & Nicolas L. Bottan & Julian Cristia, 2017. "Access to Preprimary Education and Progression in Primary School: Evidence from Rural Guatemala," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, pages 521-547.
    3. Benigno, Gianluca & Converse, Nathan & Fornaro, Luca, 2015. "Large capital inflows, sectoral allocation, and economic performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 60-87.
    4. Christopher M. Meissner, 2013. "Capital Flows, Credit Booms, and Financial Crises in the Classical Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 18814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Pinar Yesin, 2016. "Capital Flows and the Swiss Franc," Working Papers 16.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    6. Pittaluga, Giovanni B. & Seghezza, Elena, 2016. "How Japan remained on the Gold Standard despite unsustainable external debt," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 40-54.
    7. repec:spr:sjecst:v:153:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_bf03399513 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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