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Political Booms, Financial Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Guillermo Ordonez

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Christoph Trebesch

    (University of Munich)

  • Helios Herrera

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

Credit booms seem to be among the main predictors of financial crises. We find that, in emerging economies, political booms measured by increases in incumbents' popularity are important predictors too, not only of financial crises but of economic crises more generally. We propose a model in which governments concerned about their reputation and popularity ride the benefits of credit booms and delay corrective actions to prevent crises. We discuss the policy implication of the model and the consistency of its testable implications with data.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillermo Ordonez & Christoph Trebesch & Helios Herrera, 2013. "Political Booms, Financial Crises," 2013 Meeting Papers 224, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:224
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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