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Political Booms, Financial Crises


  • Guillermo Ordonez

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Christoph Trebesch

    (University of Munich)

  • Helios Herrera

    (Columbia University)


Credit booms seem to be among the main predictors of financial crises. We find that, in emerging economies, political booms measured by increases in incumbents' popularity are important predictors too, not only of financial crises but of economic crises more generally. We propose a model in which governments concerned about their reputation and popularity ride the benefits of credit booms and delay corrective actions to prevent crises. We discuss the policy implication of the model and the consistency of its testable implications with data.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillermo Ordonez & Christoph Trebesch & Helios Herrera, 2013. "Political Booms, Financial Crises," 2013 Meeting Papers 224, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:224

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    Cited by:

    1. Jord�, �scar & Richter, Bj�rn & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2017. "Bank Capital Redux: Solvency, Liquidity, and Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 11934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Solé-Ollé, Albert & Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet, 2017. "Housing booms and busts and local fiscal policy," ZEW Discussion Papers 17-001, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    3. N. Chesterley & P. Roberti, 2016. "Populism and Institutional Capture," Working Papers wp1086, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    4. Florian Christopher Buck, 2015. "The Rents of Banking A Public Choice Approach to Bank Regulation," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 59, November.
    5. repec:eee:inecon:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:37-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Paul, Pascal, 2017. "Historical Patterns of Inequality and Productivity around Financial Crises," Working Paper Series 2017-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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