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Crises and Productivity in Good Booms and in Bad Booms

Author

Listed:
  • Gary Gorton

    (Department of Economics, Yale University)

  • Guillermo Ordonez

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

Credit booms usually precede financial crises. However, some credit booms end in a crisis (bad booms) and other booms do not (good booms). We document that, while all booms start with an increase in the growth of Total Factor Productivity (TFP), such growth falls much faster subsequently for bad booms. We then develop a simple framework to explain this. Firms finance investment opportunities with short-term collateralized debt. If agents do not produce information about the collateral quality, a credit boom develops, accommodating firms with lower quality projects and increasing the incentives of lenders to acquire information about the collateral, eventually triggering a crisis. When the quality of investment opportunities also grow, the credit boom may not end in a crisis because there is a gradual adoption of low quality projects, but those projects are also of better quality, not inducing information about collateral.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary Gorton & Guillermo Ordonez, 2014. "Crises and Productivity in Good Booms and in Bad Booms," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:14-008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Helios Herrera & Guillermo Ordoñez & Christoph Trebesch, 2020. "Political Booms, Financial Crises," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(2), pages 507-543.
    2. Gary B. Gorton & Guillermo L. Ordoñez, 2014. "How Central Banks End Crises," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-025, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Luh, Yir-Hueih & Jiang, Wun-Ji & Huang, Szu-Chi, 2016. "Trade-related spillovers and industrial competitiveness: Exploring the linkages for OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 309-325.
    4. Andrey A. Gnidchenko & Vladimir A. Salnikov, 2015. "Net Comparative Advantage Index: Overcoming the Drawbacks of the Existing Indices," HSE Working papers WP BRP 119/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Sever, Can, 2021. "Political booms and currency crises," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Crises; Credit booms; Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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