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Crises and Productivity in Good Booms and in Bad Booms

Author

Listed:
  • Gary Gorton

    () (Department of Economics, Yale University)

  • Guillermo Ordonez

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

Credit booms usually precede financial crises. However, some credit booms end in a crisis (bad booms) and other booms do not (good booms). We document that, while all booms start with an increase in the growth of Total Factor Productivity (TFP), such growth falls much faster subsequently for bad booms. We then develop a simple framework to explain this. Firms finance investment opportunities with short-term collateralized debt. If agents do not produce information about the collateral quality, a credit boom develops, accommodating firms with lower quality projects and increasing the incentives of lenders to acquire information about the collateral, eventually triggering a crisis. When the quality of investment opportunities also grow, the credit boom may not end in a crisis because there is a gradual adoption of low quality projects, but those projects are also of better quality, not inducing information about collateral.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary Gorton & Guillermo Ordonez, 2014. "Crises and Productivity in Good Booms and in Bad Booms," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:14-008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Chaney & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2012. "The Collateral Channel: How Real Estate Shocks Affect Corporate Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2381-2409, October.
    2. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    3. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra56-1, July.
    4. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "On the contribution of technology shocks to business cycles," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 22-34.
    5. Moses Abramovitz, 1956. "Resource and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870," NBER Chapters,in: Resource and Output Trends in the United States Since 1870, pages 1-23 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bas B. Bakker & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Luc Laeven & Jérôme Vandenbussche & Deniz O Igan & Hui Tong, 2012. "Policies for Macrofinancial Stability; How to Deal with Credit Booms," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/06, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luh, Yir-Hueih & Jiang, Wun-Ji & Huang, Szu-Chi, 2016. "Trade-related spillovers and industrial competitiveness: Exploring the linkages for OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 309-325.
    2. Gary B. Gorton & Guillermo L. Ordoñez, 2014. "How Central Banks End Crises," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-025, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Guillermo Ordonez & Christoph Trebesch & Helios Herrera, 2013. "Political Booms, Financial Crises," 2013 Meeting Papers 224, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Crises; Credit booms; Productivity;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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