Systemic Sudden Stops: The Relevance Of Balance-Sheet Effects And Financial Integration
Using a sample of 110 developed and developing countries for the period 1990-2004 we analyze the empirical characteristics of systemic sudden stops (3S) in capital flows --understood as large and largely unexpected capital account contractions that occur in periods of systemic turmoil -- and the relevance of balance sheet effects in the likelihood of their materialization. We conjecture that large real exchange rate (RER) fluctuations come hand in hand with 3S. A small supply of tradable goods relative to their domestic absorption -- a proxy for potential changes in the real exchange rate -- and large foreign-exchange denominated debts towards the domestic banking system, denoted Domestic Liability Dollarization, DLD, are claimed to be key determinants of the probability of 3S, conforming a balance-sheet effect that impacts on the probability of 3S in non-linear fashion. Regarding financial integration, the larger is the latter, the larger is likely to be the probability of Sudden Stop; however, beyond a critical point the relationship gets a sign reversion.
|Date of creation:||May 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999.
"The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems,"
14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000.
"Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
[The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rivers, Douglas & Vuong, Quang H., 1988. "Limited information estimators and exogeneity tests for simultaneous probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 347-366, November.
- Guilkey, David K. & Murphy, James L., 1993. "Estimation and testing in the random effects probit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 301-317, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.