An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series
Macroeconometric and financial researchers often use secondary or constructed binary random variables that differ in terms of their statistical properties from the primary random variables used in micro-econometric studies. One important difference between primary and secondary binary variables is that, while the former are, in many instances, independently distributed (i.d.), the latter are rarely i.d. We show how popular rules for constructing the binary states interact with the stochastic processes for of the variables they are constructed from, so that the binary states need to be treated as Markov processes. Consequently, one needs to recognize this when performing analyses with the binary variables, and it is not valid to adopt a model like static Probit which fails to recognize such dependence. Moreover, these binary variables are often censored, in that they are constructed in such a way as to result in sequences of them possessing the same sign. Such censoring imposes restrictions upon the DGP of the binary states and it creates difficulties if one tries to utilize a dynamic Probit model with them. Given this we describe methods for modeling with these variables that both respects their Markov process nature and which explicitly deals with any censoring constraints. An application is provided that investigates the relation between the business cycle and the yield spread.
|Date of creation:||21 Jan 2009|
|Date of revision:||02 Jul 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: 07 3138 5066|
Fax: 07 3138 1500
Web page: http://www.ncer.edu.au
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521355643 is not listed on IDEAS
- Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E, 2008.
"What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 653-700, October.
- Marco Terrones & M. Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?," IMF Working Papers 08/274, International Monetary Fund.
- Asger Lunde & Allan Timmermann, 2000.
"Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1216, Econometric Society.
- Lunde A. & Timmermann A., 2004. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 253-273, July.
- Lunde, Asger & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Duration Dependence in Stock Prices: An Analysis of Bull and Bear Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 4104, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2001.
"A new approach to measuring financial contagion,"
743, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Dueker, 1997. "Strengthening the case for the yield curve as a predictor of U.S. recessions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 41-51.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996.
"The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521586115 is not listed on IDEAS
- Cashin, P. & McDermott, C. J., 1997.
"'Riding on the Sheep's Back': Examining Australia's Dependence on Wool Exports,"
Department of Economics - Working Papers Series
585, The University of Melbourne.
- Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C John, 2002. "'Riding on the Sheep's Back': Examining Australia's Dependence on Wool Exports," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(242), pages 249-63, September.
- Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 2006. "When do stock market booms occur? the macroeconomic and policy environments of 20th century booms," Working Papers 2006-051, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Baur, Dirk & Schulze, Niels, 2005. "Coexceedances in financial markets--a quantile regression analysis of contagion," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 21-43, April.
- Tiemen Woutersen & Robert M. de Jong, 2004.
"Dynamic time series binary choice,"
Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings
365, Econometric Society.
- Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
- Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H, 2000. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 100-112, January.
- Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002.
"Booms and slumps in world commodity prices,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
- C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 99/155, International Monetary Fund.
- Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Daniel M. Chin & John F. Geweke & Preston J. Miller, 2000. "Predicting turning points," Staff Report 267, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996.
"Predicting U.S. recessions: financial variables as leading indicators,"
9609, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
- Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ibbotson, Roger G & Jaffe, Jeffrey F, 1975. ""Hot Issue" Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1027-42, September.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, November.
- Candelon, Bertrand & Piplack, Jan & Straetmans, Stefan, 2008. "On measuring synchronization of bulls and bears: The case of East Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1022-1035, June.
- Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems; A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2009_39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (School of Economics and Finance)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask School of Economics and Finance to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.