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Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Jamel Gatfaoui

  • Eric Girardin

    (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In this paper, we establish a turning point chronology for the Chinese provincial deviation cycles during the period 1989-2009. The existing work has exclusively focused on the national business cycle. We detect different properties of the provincial deviation cycles. Using the mixture models clustering approach of Chris Fraley and Adrian Raftery (2002), we find that provinces can be classified among seven major clusters as a function of standard measures of cyclical characteristics. The results show that while the majority of coastal provinces remained in expansion around the Asian crisis, the nation as a whole was in recession. We uncover that all Coastal provinces are synchronized with the national cycle except Hainan. Further, the main four national recessions that occurred during this period are well diffused across the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamel Gatfaoui & Eric Girardin, 2015. "Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles," Post-Print hal-01456105, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01456105
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.10.015
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Y. & He, M. & Rudkin, S., 2017. "Understanding Chinese provincial real estate investment: A Global VAR perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 248-260.
    2. Wall, Howard, 2023. "The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 53(01), January.
    3. Jorge David Quintero Otero & Alcides de Jesús Padilla Sierra, 2024. "Impacto de la sincronización sub-nacional sobre el comportamiento de los ciclos nacionales en economías emergentes con inflación objetivo," Documentos Departamento de Economía 54, Universidad del Norte.
    4. Wang, Xiaoyu & Sun, Yanlin & Peng, Bin, 2023. "Industrial linkage and clustered regional business cycles in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 59-72.
    5. Makram El-Shagi & Kiril Tochkov, 2024. "Regional Effects of Monetary Policy in China," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2024/1, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.

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