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Regional effects of monetary policy in China

Author

Listed:
  • Makram El-Shagi

    (Henan University)

  • Kiril Tochkov

    (Texas Christian University)

Abstract

Unitary monetary policy in large emerging economies with substantial regional disparities is likely to have heterogeneous effects with unintended consequences. This paper explores the regional effects of monetary policy in China by estimating the response of a series of provincial variables to a national monetary policy shock using quarterly data over the period 1999-2022. Regional heterogeneity is assessed by comparing the results from a fixed-effects and a mean-group estimator. The response of consumer prices and loans is found to be homogeneous across provinces, while that of output and property prices exhibits significant regional variation. Further analysis of the differential response for two provincial clusters indicates that output in Western China experiences faster drops after a contractionary monetary policy shock and takes longer to recover than in Eastern and Central China. In the same context, property prices react with a delay and endure a more gradual recovery after the shock. The advancement of market institutions, the share of state-owned enterprises, and the size of the private sector are identified as potential determinants of the differential response across the two regional clusters.

Suggested Citation

  • Makram El-Shagi & Kiril Tochkov, 2025. "Regional effects of monetary policy in China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 1671-1698, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:69:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-025-02809-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-025-02809-x
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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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