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Patterns and Their Uses

  • Adrian Pagan

    ()

    (University of Sydney)

Three major themes have emerged in the literature on patterns. These involve pattern recognition, pattern matching (do a set of observations match a particular pattern?) and pattern formation ( how does a pattern emerge?). The talk takes up each of these themes, presenting some economic examples of where a pattern has been of interest, how it has been measured (section 2), some issues in checking whether a given pattern holds (section 3), what theories might account for a particular pattern (section 4), and the predictability of patterns ( section5). Most attention is paid to judging macroeconomic models based on their ability to generate macroeconomic and financial patterns, and some simple tests are suggested to do this. Because sentiment and the origins of patterns are so inextricably linked in macroeconomics and .finance we will spend some time looking at the literature which deals with the interaction of series representing sentiment with those representing macroeconomic and financial outcomes.

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Paper provided by National Centre for Econometric Research in its series NCER Working Paper Series with number 96.

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Date of creation: 08 Oct 2013
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Handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2013_8
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  1. Claudio Borio, 2012. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," BIS Working Papers 395, Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, June.
  3. Cosmin Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2012. "Ambiguous Business Cycles," Working Papers 12-06, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  4. Morris Davis & Jonathan Heathcote, 2004. "Housing and the business cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Candelon Bertrand & Dumitrescu Elena-Ivona & Hurlin Christophe, 2010. "Currency Crises Early Warning Systems: why they should be Dynamic," Research Memorandum 047, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  6. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  7. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Cover, James Peery, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-82, November.
  9. Andrew W. Lo & Harry Mamaysky & Jiang Wang, 2000. "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," NBER Working Papers 7613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Hsieh Fushing & Shu-Chun Chen & Travis J. Berge & Oscar Jorda, 2010. "A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding," Working Papers 1020, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  11. Billio Monica & Casarin Roberto, 2011. "Beta Autoregressive Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 1-32, September.
  12. Harding, Don, 2008. "Detecting and forecasting business cycle turning points," MPRA Paper 33583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Fabio Canova & Alain Schlaepfer, 2012. "Has the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership Affected Mediterranean Business Cycles?," Working Papers 548, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  14. Fruhwirth-Schnatter S., 2001. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation of Classical and Dynamic Switching and Mixture Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 194-209, March.
  15. Marco Terrones & M. Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2011. "How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?," IMF Working Papers 11/88, International Monetary Fund.
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