A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding
This paper introduces a new empirical strategy for the characterization of business cycles. It combines non-parametric decoding methods that classify a series into expansions and recessions but does not require specification of the underlying stochastic process generating the data. It then uses network analysis to combine the signals obtained from different economic indicators to generate a unique chronology. These methods generate a record of peak and trough dates comparable, and in one sense superior, to the NBER’s own chronology. The methods are then applied to 22 OECD countries to obtain a global business cycle chronology.
|Date of creation:||08 Nov 2010|
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- M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Christopher Otrok, 2008.
"Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?,"
IMF Working Papers
08/143, International Monetary Fund.
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- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar S. Prasad, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," NBER Working Papers 14292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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"How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?,"
IZA Discussion Papers
702, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
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Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers
90, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
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NBER Working Papers
9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2005.
"Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles,"
IMF Working Papers
05/211, International Monetary Fund.
- Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
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