A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding
This paper introduces a new empirical strategy for the characterization of business cycles. It combines non-parametric decoding methods that classify a series into expansions and recessions but does not require specification of the underlying stochastic process generating the data. It then uses network analysis to combine the signals obtained from different economic indicators to generate a unique chronology. These methods generate a record of peak and trough dates comparable, and in one sense superior, to the NBER?s own chronology. The methods are then applied to 22 OECD countries to obtain a global business cycle chronology.
|Date of creation:||08 Nov 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: One Shields Ave., Davis, CA 95616-8578|
Phone: (530) 752-0741
Fax: (530) 752-9382
Web page: http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hsieh Fushing & Chen Shu-Chun & Pollard Katherine, 2009. "A Nearly Exhaustive Search for CpG Islands on Whole Chromosomes," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, May.
- Stock, James H., 1987. "Measuring Business Cycle Time," Scholarly Articles 3425950, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Steve Ambler & Emanuela Cardia & Christian Zimmermann, 1999.
"International Business Cycles: What are the Facts?,"
Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers
90, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
- Ambler, Steve & Cardia, Emanuela & Zimmermann, Christian, 2004. "International business cycles: What are the facts?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 257-276, March.
- Ambler, S. & Cardia, E. & Zimmermann, C., 2000. "International Business Cycles: What Are the Facts?," Cahiers de recherche 2000-05, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- AMBLER, Steve & CARDIA, Emanuela & ZIMMERMANN, Christian, 2000. "International Business Cycles: What Are the Facts?," Cahiers de recherche 2000-05, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003.
"Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics,"
NBER Working Papers
9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, 09.
- Stock, James H, 1987. "Measuring Business Cycle Time," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1240-61, December.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012.
"Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, 05.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar S. Prasad, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," NBER Working Papers 14292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher M. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2008. "Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Ayhan Kose & Eswar S Prasad & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Global Business Cycles; Convergence or Decoupling?," IMF Working Papers 08/143, International Monetary Fund.
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher & Prasad, Eswar, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," IZA Discussion Papers 3442, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Terrones, Marco E., 2003.
"How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?,"
IZA Discussion Papers
702, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
- Ayhan Kose & Eswar S Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IMF Working Papers 03/27, International Monetary Fund.
- Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2005.
"Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles,"
IMF Working Papers
05/211, International Monetary Fund.
- Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
- Klaus Nordhausen, 2009. "The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction, Second Edition by Trevor Hastie, Robert Tibshirani, Jerome Friedman," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 77(3), pages 482-482, December.
- Travis Berge & Oscar Jorda, 2009. "The Classification of Economic Activity into Expansions and Recessions," Working Papers 918, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cda:wpaper:10-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Scott Dyer)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.