Predicting the Probability of a Recession with Nonlinear Autoregressive Leading Indicator Models
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- Anderson, Heather M. & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "Predicting The Probability Of A Recession With Nonlinear Autoregressive Leading-Indicator Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(04), pages 482-505, September.
References listed on IDEAS
- de Boer, P. M. C. & Harkema, R., 1986. "Maximum likelihood estimation of sum-constrained linear models with insufficient observations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 325-329.
- Fry, Jane M. & Fry, Tim R. L. & McLaren, Keith R., 1996. "The stochastic specification of demand share equations: Restricting budget shares to the unit simplex," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 377-385, August.
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KeywordsEvent probabilities; Leading Indicators; Nonlinear Models;
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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