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The World of Forking Paths: Latin America and the Caribbean Facing Global Economic Risks

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  • Andrew Powell

Abstract

This report details the divergent paths that the world economy may take and their potential effects on Latin America and the Caribbean. Scenarios are constructed employing a modeling exercise that captures the trade, financial and other linkages between the region and the rest of the world. While vulnerabilities remain and external shocks have been and remain critical, the region enjoys many strengths and has developed a growing arsenal of policy tools. What is the balance of vulnerabilities versus strengths? How can countries address the existing vulnerabilities? How can they perfect their policy tools and minimize the effect of external crises?

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  • Andrew Powell, 2012. "The World of Forking Paths: Latin America and the Caribbean Facing Global Economic Risks," Research Department Publications 4766, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4766
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    3. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    4. Rojas, Diego & Vegh, Carlos & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2022. "The macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy: Evidence from a narrative approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Patricia Justino & Bruno Martorano, 2016. "Redistribution, inequality and political participation: Evidence from Mexico during the 2008 financial crisis," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-140, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. De Gregorio, José, 2015. "Sobre entradas y salidas de capitales: flujos brutos, netos y política económica," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 2, pages 9-24.
    7. Patricia Justino & Bruno Martorano, 2016. "Redistribution, inequality and political participation: Evidence from Mexico during the 2008 financial crisis," WIDER Working Paper Series 140, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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