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External Shocks and Banking Crises in Developing Countries: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter?

  • Chandima Mendis
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    This paper examines some determinants of banking crises in developing economies. Specifically, the effects of terms of trade shocks and capital flows are analyzed. The choice of the nominal exchange rate regime is found to be a crucial factor in the way various shocks are transmitted through the monetary sector. A logit model is used on panel data and preliminary results indicate that countries with flexible regimes were able to lessen the impact of external shocks on the domestic economy. This in turn reduced the likelihood of banking crises.

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    Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 759.

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    Date of creation: 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_759
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    1. Taylor, Lance & O'Connell, Stephen A, 1985. "A Minsky Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 871-85, Supp..
    2. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1759, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    3. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos, 1985. "Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-24.
    4. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises: Evidence From Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," NBER Working Papers 5437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank.
    7. Eastwood, R K & Venables, A J, 1982. "The Macroeconomic Implications of a Resource Discovery in an Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(366), pages 285-99, June.
    8. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1991. "Financial Markets and Financial Crises," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number glen91-1, July.
    9. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 6370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Charles W. Calomiris & Gary Gorton, 1991. "The Origins of Banking Panics: Models, Facts, and Bank Regulation," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 109-174 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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