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How Common are Capital Flows Surges? How They are Measured Matters -a Lot

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  • Masyita Crystallin
  • Levan Efremidze
  • Sungsoo Kim
  • Wahyu Nugroho
  • Ozan Sula
  • Thomas Willett

Abstract

In recent years there have been a number of highly publicized episodes of large international capital flow surges and dramatic reversals. This paper addresses several issues surrounding such episodes. We investigate how frequent are capital surges and have they been increasing over time. This requires dealing with the issue of how capital flow surges are measured. In our review of recent studies we found that a wide variety of measures have been used and that most studies have paid little attention to the measures used in other studies. To examine how much the identification of surge episodes varied according to the different measures, we selected seven measures from the recent literature and applied them on a common dataset of 46 countries for the period 1980 to 2010. The differences in the numbers of episodes identified by the various methods were far from trivial. In fact they varied by a factor of almost three. However, across most measures, we found that there was a substantial increase in surges from the 1980s period to 1990s. Whether there was a further increase during the 2000s varied by the measure used. These findings highlight a need to devote more attention to how surges may best be measured. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

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  • Masyita Crystallin & Levan Efremidze & Sungsoo Kim & Wahyu Nugroho & Ozan Sula & Thomas Willett, 2015. "How Common are Capital Flows Surges? How They are Measured Matters -a Lot," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 663-682, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:26:y:2015:i:4:p:663-682
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-015-9342-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Levan Efremidze & John Rutledge & Thomas D. Willett, 2016. "Capital Flow Surges As Bubbles: Behavioral Finance And Mckinnon’S Over-Borrowing Syndrome Extended," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-27, June.
    2. Seung-Gwan Baek & Chi-Young Song, 2016. "On the Determinants of Surges and Stops in Foreign Loans: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 405-445, July.
    3. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2019. "Ride the Wild Surf: An investigation of the drivers of surges in capital inflows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 112-136.
    4. Puspa D. Amri & Thomas D. Willett, 2017. "Policy Inconsistencies and the Political Economy of Currency Crises," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-24, February.
    5. Valerio Nispi Landi & Alessandro Schiavone, 2021. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 183-211, February.
    6. Almahmood, Hassan & Bird, Graham & Willett, Thomas D., 2020. "The relationship between currency crises and capital flow reversals: An empirical examination," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 419-434.
    7. Levan Efremidze & Sungsoo Kim & Ozan Sula & Thomas D. Willett, 2017. "The relationships among capital flow surges, reversals and sudden stops," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(4), pages 393-413, November.
    8. Rogelio V. Mercado, 2018. "Not all surges of gross capital inflows are alike," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(2), pages 326-347, May.
    9. Channarith Meng & Roberto Leon Gonzalez, 2017. "Credit Booms in Developing Countries: Are They Different from Those in Advanced and Emerging Market Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 547-579, July.
    10. Mercado, Rogelio V., 2019. "Capital flow transitions: Domestic factors and episodes of gross capital inflows," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 251-264.
    11. Mark Copelovitch & David A. Singer, 2017. "Tipping the (Im)balance: Capital inflows, financial market structure, and banking crises," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 179-208, November.
    12. Annamaria de Crescenzio & Etienne Lepers, 2021. "Extreme capital flow episodes from the Global Financial Crisis to COVID-19: An exploration with monthly data," OECD Working Papers on International Investment 2021/05, OECD Publishing.
    13. Ahmet Ihsan Kaya & Lutfi Erden & Ibrahim Ozkan, 2022. "Detecting capital flow surges in developing countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3510-3530, July.
    14. Boubekeur Baba & Guven Sevil, 2020. "The behavior of stock market prices throughout the episodes of capital inflows," Papers 2008.13472, arXiv.org.
    15. Puspa D. Amri & Greg M. Richey & Thomas D. Willett, 2016. "Capital Surges and Credit Booms: How Tight is the Relationship?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 637-670, September.
    16. Deng, Chuang & Xie, Jingxuan & Zhao, Xiuyi, 2023. "Analysis of the impact of global uncertainty on abnormal cross-border capital flows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 338-346.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Capital flow surges; Sudden stops; Capital flow reversals; Financial crises; F3; F32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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