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Not all surges of gross capital inflows are alike

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  • Rogelio V. Mercado

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to consider the transition of surge episodes to stop episodes and differentiates between two types of surges, namely, surges that end in stops and surges that end in normal episodes. Design/methodology/approach - Previous studies show that surges end in output contractions, crises, and reversals of capital inflows. However, when one looks closely at the data, more than half of surges end in normal episodes at least four quarters following the last surge quarter. Findings - The results show the varying significance of global and domestic factors correlated with the occurrence of surges leading to stops and the size of gross inflows during these two types of surges. Originality/value - The findings highlight the importance of differentiating between these two types of surges as it leaves scope for policy design in safeguarding financial stability amidst surging capital inflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Rogelio V. Mercado, 2018. "Not all surges of gross capital inflows are alike," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(2), pages 326-347, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:jes-01-2017-0007
    DOI: 10.1108/JES-01-2017-0007
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    Cited by:

    1. Mercado, Rogelio & Noviantie, Shanty, 2020. "Financial flows centrality: Empirical evidence using bilateral capital flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Levan Efremidze & Sungsoo Kim & Ozan Sula & Thomas D. Willett, 2017. "The relationships among capital flow surges, reversals and sudden stops," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(4), pages 393-413, November.
    3. Rogelio V. Mercado, 2023. "Bilateral capital flows: Gravity, push and pull," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 36-63, April.
    4. Daniel Carvalho & Etienne Lepers & Rogelio Jr Mercado, 2021. "Taming the "Capital Flows-Credit Nexus": A Sectoral Approach," Trinity Economics Papers tep0921, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    5. McCully, Tuuli, 2023. "Drivers of portfolio flows into Chinese debt securities amidst China's bond market development," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2023, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    6. Annamaria de Crescenzio & Etienne Lepers, 2021. "Extreme capital flow episodes from the Global Financial Crisis to COVID-19: An exploration with monthly data," OECD Working Papers on International Investment 2021/05, OECD Publishing.
    7. Mercado, Rogelio V., 2019. "Capital flow transitions: Domestic factors and episodes of gross capital inflows," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 251-264.
    8. Lepers, Etienne & Mercado, Rogelio, 2021. "Sectoral capital flows: Covariates, co-movements, and controls," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Dridi, Ichrak & Boughrara, Adel, 2023. "Flexible inflation targeting and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flow surges; Capital inflows; Push and pull factors; Stops; Sudden stops; Surges; F30; F32; F36;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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