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Drivers of portfolio flows into Chinese debt securities amidst China's bond market development

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  • McCully, Tuuli

Abstract

The paper focuses on China's onshore bond market and the drivers of non-resident net portfolio flows into Chinese debt securities. Building on a theoretical model of push and pull factors as a foundation for the empirical analysis on drivers of bond flows into China, static and time-varying models are estimated to explain the importance of various push and pull factors in the context of China's bond market development. While China-specific pull factors, such as domestic economic growth prospects and asset returns, are important drivers of bond flows, the results reveal that global push factors, such as US interest rates and investor risk aversion, have recently gained significance as drivers of flows into China. This shift goes hand in hand with China's gradual bond market liberalization measures. The findings confirm China's continued bond market deepening and integration with the rest of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • McCully, Tuuli, 2023. "Drivers of portfolio flows into Chinese debt securities amidst China's bond market development," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2023, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:280981
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital flows; portfolio flows; push factors; pull factors; financial openness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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