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Fed policy expectations and portfolio flows to emerging markets

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  • Koepke, Robin

Abstract

The empirical literature has long established that U.S. interest rates are an important driver of international portfolio flows, with lower rates “pushing” foreign capital to EMs. On this basis, it is often argued that Fed tightening is likely to weigh on EM portfolio flows in coming years. This paper offers a different interpretation of the literature and provides empirical evidence that it is mainly the surprise element of monetary policy that affects EM portfolio inflows. A shift in market expectations towards easier future U.S. monetary policy leads to greater EM portfolio inflows, while an upward shift in interest rate expectations reduces such flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Koepke, Robin, 2018. "Fed policy expectations and portfolio flows to emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 170-194.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:170-194
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2018.03.003
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    Cited by:

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    2. OGAWA, Eiji & SHIMIZU, Junko & LUO, Pengfei, 2023. "Effects of Us Interest Rate Hike and Global Risk on Daily Capital Flows in Emerging Market Countries," Hitotsubashi Journal of commerce and management, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 57(1), pages 1-31, October.
    3. Martha López-Piñeros & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño & Miguel Sarmiento, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Portfolio Flows in an Emerging Market Economy," Borradores de Economia 1200, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Antoine GODIN & Sakir-Devrim YILMAZ, 2020. "Modelling Small Open Developing Economies in a Financialized World: A Stock-Flow Consistent Prototype Growth Model," Working Paper 5eb7e0e8-560f-4ce6-91a5-5, Agence française de développement.
    5. Boonman, Tjeerd M., 2023. "Portfolio capital flows before and after the Global Financial Crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Geis, André & Moder, Isabella & Schuler, Tobias, 2020. "Who’s afraid of euro area monetary tightening? CESEE shouldn’t," Working Paper Series 2416, European Central Bank.
    7. Kumar, Virender & Dua, Pami, 2024. "What explains foreign portfolio investment inflows to BRICS countries?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 32-46.
    8. Carlos Alba & Gabriel Cuadra & Juan R. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra, 2024. "Capital flows to emerging economies and global risk aversion during the COVID‐19 pandemic," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2804-2836, July.
    9. Qiu, Yue & Xie, Tian & Xie, Wenjing & Zheng, Xiangzhong, 2023. "Federal policy announcements and capital reallocation: Insights from inflow and outflow trends in the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Boermans, Martijn A. & Burger, John D., 2023. "Fickle emerging market flows, stable euros, and the dollar risk factor," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Robin Koepke & Simon Paetzold, 2024. "Capital flow data—A guide for empirical analysis and real‐time tracking," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 311-331, January.
    12. Singh, Amanjot, 2020. "COVID-19 and safer investment bets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    13. Ferriani, Fabrizio, 2021. "From taper tantrum to Covid-19: Portfolio flows to emerging markets in periods of stress," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Wishnu Mahraddika, 2021. "How effective is capital flow management? The Indonesian experience," Departmental Working Papers 2021-15, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    15. Mélina London & Maéva Silvestrini, 2023. "US Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets: the Trade Credit Channel," Working papers 915, Banque de France.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Emerging economies; U.S. monetary policy; Market expectations; Push and pull; Taper tantrum;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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