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Daily monetary policy shocks and new home sales

  • Hamilton, James D.

The conventional notion of a monetary policy shock as a surprise change in the fed funds rate is misspecified. The primary news for market participants is not what the Fed just did, but is instead new information about the Fed's future intentions. Revisions in these anticipations show up instantaneously in long-term mortgage rates. Home sales do not respond until much later. This paper attributes this delay--and hence much of the hump-shaped response of economic activity to monetary policy--to cross-sectional heterogeneity in search times. This framework allows one in principle to measure policy impacts at the daily frequency.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 7 (October)
Pages: 1171-1190

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:55:y:2008:i:7:p:1171-1190
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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  1. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
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  12. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Daily Monetary Policy Shocks and the Delayed Response of New Home Sales," NBER Working Papers 14223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-48, November.
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  17. Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "The MIDAS Touch: Mixed Data Sampling Regression Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-20, CIRANO.
  18. James D. Hamilton, 2008. "Assessing monetary policy effects using daily federal funds futures contracts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 377-394.
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