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Modelling the time varying determinants of portfolio flows to emerging markets

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  • Lo Duca, Marco

Abstract

This paper studies how the drivers of portfolio flows change across periods with a model where regression coefficients endogenously change over time in a continuous fashion. The empirical analysis of daily equity portfolio flows to emerging markets shows that the regression coefficients display substantial time variation. Major changes in the importance of the drivers of the flows coincide with important market events/shocks. Overall, investors pay more attention to regional developments in emerging markets in periods when market tensions are elevated. However, extreme tensions generate panics, i.e. periods when changes in uncertainty and risk aversion drive flows, while regional developments play only a marginal role. JEL Classification: F32, F34, G01, G11

Suggested Citation

  • Lo Duca, Marco, 2012. "Modelling the time varying determinants of portfolio flows to emerging markets," Working Paper Series 1468, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121468
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    2. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro & Andre Faria & Jonathan David Ostry & Julian Di Giovanni & Martin Schindler & Ayhan Kose & Marco Terrones, 2008. "Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization," IMF Occasional Papers 264, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    4. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
    5. Ashoka Mody & Mark P. Taylor, 2013. "International capital crunches: the time-varying role of informational asymmetries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(20), pages 2961-2973, July.
    6. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    7. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Raphaël Janssen & Romuald Morhs, 2015. "The interest rate sensitivity of Luxembourg bond funds: results from a time-varying model," BCL working papers 98, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    2. Muhammad Afaq Haider & Muhammad Asif Khan & Elyas Abdulahi, 2016. "Determinants of Foreign Portfolio Investment and Its Effects on China," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(12), pages 143-150, December.
    3. Lo Duca, Marco & Adam, Tomáš, 2017. "Modeling euro area bond yields using a time-varying factor model," Working Paper Series 2012, European Central Bank.
    4. Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "On the international spillovers of US quantitative easing," Working Paper Series 1557, European Central Bank.
    5. Yasemin Erduman & Neslihan Kaya, 2014. "Determinants of Bond Flows to Emerging Markets: How Do They Change Over Time?," Working Papers 1428, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Hernández Vega Marco A., 2017. "Portfolio Investment Response to U.S. Monetary Policy Announcements: An Event," Working Papers 2017-02, Banco de México.
    7. Gauvin, L. & McLoughlin, C. & Reinhardt, D., 2013. "Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows," Working papers 435, Banque de France.
    8. Hattori, Masazumi & Shim, Ilhyock & Sugihara, Yoshihiko, 2016. "Volatility Contagion across the Equity Markets of Developed and Emerging Market Economies," ADBI Working Papers 590, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    9. Tomas Adam & Sona Benecka & Jakub Mateju, 2014. "Risk Aversion, Financial Stress and Their Non-Linear Impact on Exchange Rates," Working Papers 2014/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    10. Masazumi Hattori & Ilhyock Shim & Yoshihiko Sugihara, 2018. "Cross-stock market spillovers through variance risk premiums and equity flows," BIS Working Papers 702, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Di Filippo, Gabriele, 2017. "What Drives Gross Flows in Equity and Investment Fund Shares in Luxembourg?," MPRA Paper 84200, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Jan 2018.
    12. Ozgur Ozel & Mustafa Utku Ozmen & Erdal Yilmaz, 2015. "Importance of Foreign Ownership and Staggered Adjustment of Capital Outflows," Working Papers 1531, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    13. Tim A Kroencke & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2015. "Global Asset Allocation Shifts," BIS Working Papers 497, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital flows; emerging markets; financial crisis; pull factors; push factors;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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