IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/vfsc19/203629.html

Capital flows to emerging market and developing economies: Global liquidity and uncertainty versus country-specific pull factors

Author

Listed:
  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Volz, Ulrich

Abstract

This paper investigates the empirical significance of push- and pull factors of different types of capital flows - FDI, portfolio and "others" (including loans) - to emerging market and developing economies. Based on an extensive quarterly mixed time-series panel dataset for 32 emerging market and developing economies from 2009 to 2017, we rigorously test down broadly specified empirical models for the three types of capital inflows to parsimonious final models in a Hendry-type fashion. Regarding push factors, our study focuses on the relative importance of global liquidity and economic policy uncertainty vis-à-vis country-specific pull factors when assessing the drivers of capital flows to a broad set of emerging market and developing economies. Global liquidity, economic policy uncertainty and other risk factors, such as the US yield spread, turn out to be the most significant drivers of portfolio flows, but are also relevant to the other two categories of flows. Our capital flow-type specific estimation results underscore the need for policymakers to analyse the composition of observed capital inflows to assess vulnerabilities related to external financing and safeguard financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar & Volz, Ulrich, 2019. "Capital flows to emerging market and developing economies: Global liquidity and uncertainty versus country-specific pull factors," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203629, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc19:203629
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/203629/1/VfS-2019-pid-28163.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John Beirne & Nuobu Renzhi & Ulrich Volz, 2024. "Local Currency Bond Markets, Foreign Investor Participation And Capital Flow Volatility In Emerging Asia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 69(02), pages 517-541, March.
    2. Caroline Jardet & Cristina Jude & Menzie Chinn, 2023. "Foreign direct investment under uncertainty evidence from a large panel of countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 854-885, August.
    3. Kumar, Virender & Dua, Pami, 2024. "What explains foreign portfolio investment inflows to BRICS countries?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 32-46.
    4. Virender Kumar & Naveen Kumar & Puneet Kumar Arora & Apoorva Gupta, 2024. "Does domestic monetary policy affect foreign direct investment to India?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(1), pages 173-181.
    5. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Beck, Krzysztof & Jackson, Karen, 2024. "Financial, institutional, and macroeconomic determinants of cross-country portfolio equity flows: The case of developed countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Gaies, Brahim & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi & Sahut, Jean-Michel, 2024. "Unravelling the complex interactions between sentiment of uncertainty and foreign capital flows: Evidence from Brazil and South Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. John Beirne Beirne & Nuobu Renzhi & Eric Alexander Sugandi & Ulrich Volz, 2020. "Financial Market and Capital Flow Dynamics During the COVID-19 Pandemic," ADBI Working Papers 1158, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    8. Beckmann, Joscha & Boonman, Tjeerd M. & Schreiber, Sven, 2024. "Expectations, sentiments and capital flows to emerging market economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Fabiani, Josefina & Fidora, Michael & Setzer, Ralph & Westphal, Andreas & Zorell, Nico, 2021. "Sudden stops and asset purchase programmes in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2597, European Central Bank.
    10. Yuen C. Lo & Ulrich Volz, 2025. "The Impacts of Disasters on Capital Flows, International Reserves and Exchange Rates: Implications for Public Sector Financial Risk Management and Development Lenders," Working Papers 267, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    11. Ftiti, Zied & Ben Ameur, Hachmi & Louhichi, Wael & Anastasiou, Dimitris & Awijen, Haithem, 2024. "Revisiting capital flow drivers: Regional dynamics, constraints, and geopolitical influences," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc19:203629. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.