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Capital Flow Types, External Financing Needs, and Industrial Growth: 99 countries, 1991-2007

  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Vladyslav Sushko

We examine the differential impact of portfolio debt, portfolio equity, and FDI inflows on 37 manufacturing industries, 99 countries, 1991-2007, extending Rajan-Zingales (1998). We utilize external finance dependence measures in a series of cross-sectional regressions of manufacturing industries' growth rates covering 17 years. Net portfolio debt inflows are negatively associated with growth during the mid 1990s. The magnitudes of the negative effect of surges in portfolio debt inflows on growth are substantial in the late 1990s for a number of countries. The effect of debt inflows on growth in the 2000s is rather muted. Surges in portfolio equity inflows also exhibit a negative association with aggregate growth in the manufacturing sector. For instance, the inflow surge during the financial liberalization period, 1993-1994, is associated with a sharp decline in aggregate manufacturing sector growth, but a rise in the growth of relatively more financially constrained industries. Equity inflows exhibited economically significant positive impact on the growth of financially constrained industries, unlike their negative impact on the average manufacturing growth rate. FDI inflows exhibit a positive association with aggregate manufacturing growth during most of the sample period, both at the aggregate level and specifically for the industries in need of external financing.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17228.

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Date of creation: Jul 2011
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17228
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  1. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent, 2008. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," CEPR Discussion Papers 6996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto & Artur Radziwill, 2004. "Sources for Financing Domestic Capital -- Is Foreign Saving a Viable Option for Developing Countries?," NBER Working Papers 10624, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2003. "The Elusive Gains from International Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 9684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei, 2010. "The Composition Matters: Capital Inflows and Liquidity Crunch during a Global Economic Crisis," Working Papers 172010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  5. Cowan, Kevin & Raddatz, Claudio, 2011. "Sudden stops and financial frictions : evidence from industry level data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5605, The World Bank.
  6. Harrison, Ann E. & Love, Inessa & McMillan, Margaret S., 2004. "Global capital flows and financing constraints," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 269-301, October.
  7. Diaz-Alejandro, Carlos, 1985. "Good-bye financial repression, hello financial crash," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-24.
  8. Julián Caballero, 2012. "Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises?: Cross-Country Evidence on Bonanzas in Capital Inflows and Bonanza-Boom-Bust Cycles," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 71178, Inter-American Development Bank.
  9. Joseph Joyce, 2011. "Financial Globalization and Banking Crises in Emerging Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 875-895, November.
  10. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, . "Financial Dependence and Growth," CRSP working papers 344, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  11. Prasad, Eswar & Rajan, Raghuram G. & Subramanian, Arvind, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 3186, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. repec:bla:restud:v:73:y:2006:i:3:p:715-741 is not listed on IDEAS
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