Capital flows: Catalyst or Hindrance to economic takeoffs?
This paper applies a probit estimation to assess the relationship between economic takeoffs during 1950-2000 and inflows of portfolio debt, portfolio equity, and FDI, controlling for country's stock of short-term external debt and commodity terms of trade. Average level of FDI inflows is associated with a 23 percent higher takeoff probability relative to a zero FDI inflow benchmark, and this effect is highest for the Latin America subsample, with a 65 rise in takeoff probability. Higher stock of short term external debt has been associated with a substantial negative effect on the probability of a takeoff, and the effect of the short terms debt overhang is largest for Latin American countries. Yet, virtually all the takeoffs were associated with a rise in portfolio debt inflows. At the sample mean, inflow of portfolio debt is associated with approximately 25 percent higher probability of a takeoff. In contrast, a one standard deviation increase in equity outflows (inflows) is associated with a 47 percent (17 percent) decline in the probability of a takeoff. A one standard deviation improvement in commodity terms of trade is associated with 28 percent higher takeoff probability.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Luca Antonio Ricci & Gian Maria Milesi‐Ferretti & Jaewoo Lee, 2013.
"Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Cross‐Country Perspective,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 845-865, 08.
- Luca A Ricci & Jaewoo Lee & Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals; A Cross-Country Perspective," IMF Working Papers 08/13, International Monetary Fund.
- Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007.
"Foreign Capital and Economic Growth,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 153-230.
- Prasad, Eswar & Rajan, Raghuram G. & Subramanian, Arvind, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 3186, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 13619, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Dollar & Aart Kraay, 2004.
"Trade, Growth, and Poverty,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(493), pages F22-F49, 02.
- Joseph Joyce, 2011. "Financial Globalization and Banking Crises in Emerging Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 875-895, November.
- International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Commodity Terms of Trade; The History of Booms and Busts," IMF Working Papers 09/205, International Monetary Fund.
- Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(3), pages 835-864.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17258. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.