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  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Mark M. Spiegel


This paper identifies factors associated with takeoff-a sustained period of high growth following a period of stagnation. Countries that experience takeoffs average 2.3% annual growth following their stagnation episodes, while those that do not average 0%. Using probit, we find that de jure trade openness is positively and significantly associated with takeoffs. A one-standard-deviation increase in de jure trade openness is associated with a 55% increase in the probability of a takeoff in our default specification. Capital account openness encourages takeoff responses, but measures of de facto trade openness are found to be poor predictors of takeoffs. We also examine the determinants of nations achieving "sustained" takeoffs; i.e. those lasting eight years or longer. Takeoffs in countries with more commodity-intensive output bundles are less likely to be sustained, suggesting that adverse terms-of-trade shocks may play a role in ending long-term high growth episodes. Copyright © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Takeoffs," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 177-196, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:14:y:2010:i:2:p:177-196

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2012. "Determinants of Growth Spells; Is Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 12/227, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries


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