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Trade, growth and growth volatility: New panel evidence

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  • Kim, Dong-Hyeon
  • Lin, Shu-Chin
  • Suen, Yu-Bo

Abstract

This paper examines the relationships of trade with economic growth and growth volatility using the Chudik and Pesaran (2013) cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) panel data approach to account for the potential dynamic heterogeneity and cross-section dependency in the effects of trade. Some important results emerge. First, greater international trade, on average, promotes economic growth and amplifies growth volatility in the long run, and hence induces a positive long-run association between growth and growth volatility. Second, greater international trade stimulates economic activities and mitigates economic fluctuations, on average, in the short run, and therefore causes a negative short-run correlation between growth and growth volatility. And third, there is large heterogeneity in the effects of trade, depending upon a country's development level, financial system, macroeconomic policies, human capital, corruption, and labor regulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Lin, Shu-Chin & Suen, Yu-Bo, 2016. "Trade, growth and growth volatility: New panel evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 384-399.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:45:y:2016:i:c:p:384-399
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2016.07.006
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    Cited by:

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    5. Campi, Mercedes & Dueñas, Marco, 2020. "Volatility and economic growth in the twentieth century," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 330-343.
    6. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Tax reform and public debt instability in developing countries: The trade openness and public revenue instability channels," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 54-67.
    7. Octavio Escobar, Ulises Neri, Stephan Silvestre, 2020. "Energy policy of fossil fuel–producing countries: does global energy transition matter?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 17(1), pages 5-30, June.
    8. Kis, Katalin, 2017. "A Kelet-afrikai Közösség belső kereskedelmére ható tényezők [Factors determining the intra-regional trade of the East African Community]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 943-969.
    9. Abosedra, Salah & Arayssi, Mahmoud & Ben Sita, Bernard & Mutshinda, Crispin, 2020. "Exploring GDP growth volatility spillovers across countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 577-589.
    10. Redmond, Trumel & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2020. "Role of natural resource abundance, international trade and financial development in the economic development of selected countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade openness; Economic growth; Growth volatility; Heterogeneous panel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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