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Cross-country heterogeneity and the trade-income relationship

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  • Herzer, Dierk

Abstract

This paper makes two contributions to the literature on the impact of trade on income. First, we use heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques that are robust to omitted variables and endogenous regression to estimate the effect of trade on income for 81 developed and developing countries, both for the sample as a whole and for each individual country. Second, we use a general-to-specific variable selection approach to identify important determinants of the effect of trade on income. Our main finding s are: (i) A one percent increase in the trade share of GDP yields, on average, a statistically significant increase in income per worker of about 0.16 percent. This result is in contrast to previous studies, which tend to produce either unreasonably large or statistically insignificant estimates of the impact of the trade on income. (ii) There are large cross-country differences in the income effect of trade, in particular between developed and developing countries. For developed countries the income effect of trade is positive, whereas trade has, on average, a negative impact on income in developing countries. (iii) The cross-county heterogeneity in the impact of trade on income can be explained mainly by cross-county differences in primary export dependence, labour market regulation, and property rights protection. The level of property rights protection is positively related, while the level of primarily export dependence and labour market regulation is negatively related to the income effect of trade.

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  • Herzer, Dierk, 2009. "Cross-country heterogeneity and the trade-income relationship," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Frankfurt a.M. 2009 13, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:gdec09:13
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    Cited by:

    1. Hafner, Kurt A. & Mayer-Foulkes, David, 2013. "Fertility, economic growth, and human development causal determinants of the developed lifestyle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 107-120.
    2. Herzer, Dierk & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2015. "Income inequality and health: Evidence from developed and developing countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 9, pages 1-56.
    3. Mariam Camarero & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann & Cecilio Tamarit, 2016. "Trade Openness and Income: A Tale of Two Regions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 386-408, March.
    4. Herzer, Dierk, 2014. "Unions and income inequality: a heterogenous cointegration and causality analysis," Working Paper 146/2014, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg.
    5. Silberberger, Magdalene & Königer, Jens, 2016. "Regulation, trade and economic growth," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 308-322.
    6. Farajzadeh, Zakariya & Zhu, Xueqin & Bakhshoodeh, Mohammad, 2017. "Trade reform in Iran for accession to the World Trade Organization: Analysis of welfare and environmental impacts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 75-85.
    7. Önder, Ali Sina & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2016. "Trade partner diversification and growth: How trade links matter," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 241-258.
    8. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik, 2017. "Religiosity and income: a panel cointegration and causality analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(30), pages 2922-2938, June.
    9. Nicole Grunewald & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2014. "Green Growth in Mexico, Brazil and Chile: Policy strategies and future prospects," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 229, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Herzer, Dierk, 2014. "The long-run relationship between trade and population health: evidence from five decades," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100441, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Krenz, Astrid, 2013. "Political institutions and trade-evidence for the long-run relationship and causality," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 182, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    12. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Shu-Chin Lin, 2017. "Natural Resources and Economic Development: New Panel Evidence," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(2), pages 363-391, February.
    13. Grundmann, Rainer & Gries, Thomas, 2015. "Crucial for Modern Sector Development? The Role of Exports and Institutions in Developing Countries," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112962, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Lin, Shu-Chin & Suen, Yu-Bo, 2016. "Trade, growth and growth volatility: New panel evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 384-399.
    15. repec:bla:afrdev:v:29:y:2017:i:2:p:350-361 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Krenz, Astrid, 2016. "Do political institutions influence international trade? Measurement of institutions and the Long-Run effects," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 276, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; Income; Cross-country heterogeneity; Panel cointegration; General-to-specific approach;

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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