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Sudden Stops: Determinants and Output Effects in the First Era of Globalization, 1880-1913

  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Alberto F. Cavallo
  • Christopher M. Meissner

Using a sample of 20 emerging countries from 1880 to 1913, we study the determinants and output effects of sudden stops in capital inflows during an era of intensified globalization. We find that higher levels of original sin (hard currency debt to total debt) and large current account deficits associated with reliance on foreign capital greatly increased the likelihood of experiencing a sudden stop. Trade openness and stronger commitment to the gold standard had the opposite effect. These results are robust for many sudden stop definitions used in the literature. Finally, we use a treatment effects model to show that after controlling for endogeneity sudden stops have a strong negative association with growth in per capita output. We also show that banking, currency and debt crises that were preceded by a sudden stop have much greater negative relation with growth than in the absence of a sudden stop.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13489.

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Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Publication status: published as Bordo, Michael D. & Cavallo, Alberto F. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2010. "Sudden stops: Determinants and output effects in the first era of globalization, 1880-1913," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-241, March.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13489
Note: DAE IFM
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  1. Barry Eichengreen & Muge Adalet, 2005. "Current Account Reversals: Always a Problem?," NBER Working Papers 11634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
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  4. Bordo, Michael D., 2008. "Growing up to Financial Stability," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2, pages 1-17.
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