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On the impact of volatility on the real exchange rate - terms of trade nexus: Revisiting commodity currencies

Author

Listed:
  • Virginie Coudert

  • Cécile Couharde

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Valérie Mignon

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between terms of trade and real exchange rates in commodity-producing countries on both the short and the long run. We investigate potential non-linearity in the real exchange rate – terms of trade nexus according to the level of volatility in commodity and financial markets. To this end, we consider a panel of 68 commodity exporters, split in sub-samples of advanced, intermediate and low-income countries. We first show that there is a long-run relationship between real exchange rates and terms of trade, taking also into account productivity and net foreign assets. Then, we run panel smooth transition regressions to estimate the adjustment process of the real effective exchange rate to its equilibrium value depending on different proxies of volatility. Our results show that only advanced oil-exporters' currencies are sensitive to changes in terms of trade in the short run especially when volatility is high on commodity markets.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2015. "On the impact of volatility on the real exchange rate - terms of trade nexus: Revisiting commodity currencies," Post-Print hal-01385992, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01385992
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    Cited by:

    1. Liming Chen & Zhi Zhang & Ziqing Du & Lingling Deng, 2021. "Heterogeneous determinants of the exchange rate market in China with structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(59), pages 6839-6854, December.
    2. Cyriac Guillaumin & Salem Boubakri & Alexandre Silanine, 2020. "Do commodity price volatilities impact currency misalignments in commodity-exporting countries?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1727-1739.
    3. Tii N. Nchofoung, 2022. "Trade shocks and labour market resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the franc zone response differently?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 161-174.
    4. Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan, 2019. "Exchange market pressure and primary commodity – exporting emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(22), pages 2390-2412, May.
    5. Boubakri, Salem & Guillaumin, Cyriac & Silanine, Alexandre, 2019. "Non-linear relationship between real commodity price volatility and real effective exchange rate: The case of commodity-exporting countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 212-228.
    6. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2017. "Oil currencies in the face of oil shocks: what can be learned from time-varying specifications?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(18), pages 1774-1793, April.
    7. Rebeca Jiménez‐Rodríguez & Amalia Morales‐Zumaquero, 2020. "Impact of commodity prices on exchange rates in commodity‐exporting countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1868-1906, July.
    8. Kharrat, Sabrine & Hammami, Yacine & Fatnassi, Ibrahim, 2020. "On the cross-sectional relation between exchange rates and future fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 484-501.
    9. Bermpei, Theodora & Ferrara, Laurent & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2024. "Commodity currencies revisited: The role of global commodity price uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Edouard Mien, 2020. "External and Internal Real Exchange Rates and the Dutch Disease in Africa: Evidence from a Panel of Nine Oil-Exporting Countries," Working Papers hal-03013571, HAL.
    11. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Gloria Sarmiento, 2018. "Sovereign risk and the real exchange rate: A non-linear approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 1-14.
    12. Yin, Libo & Ma, Xiyuan, 2018. "Causality between oil shocks and exchange rate: A Bayesian, graph-based VAR approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 434-453.
    13. Yıldırım, Durmuş Çağrı & Erdoğan, Fatma & Tarı, Elif Nur, 2022. "Time-varying volatility spillovers between real exchange rate and real commodity prices for emerging market economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    14. Wen, Tiange & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2020. "Volatility connectedness in global foreign exchange markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    15. Palesa Milliscent Lefatsa & Simiso Msomi & Hilary Tinotenda Muguto & Lorraine Muguto & Paul-Francios Muzindutsi, 2025. "An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Global Risk Sentiment, Gold Prices, and Interest Rate Differentials on Exchange Rate Dynamics in South Africa," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-21, July.
    16. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2020. "Commodity terms of trade shocks and real effective exchange rate dynamics in Africa's commodity-exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    17. Singh, Vipul Kumar & Nishant, Shreyank & Kumar, Pawan, 2018. "Dynamic and directional network connectedness of crude oil and currencies: Evidence from implied volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 48-63.
    18. Marina Tiunova, 2019. "Commodity and Financial Cycles in Resource-based Economies," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(3), pages 38-70, September.
    19. Rodrigo da Silva Souza & Leonardo B. de Mattos & João E. de Lima, 2021. "Commodity prices and the Brazilian real exchange rate," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 3152-3172, April.
    20. Ahmed, Syed Shujaat, 2019. "Oil Prices and Exchange Rate with Impact of Pre-Dollar and Post-Dollar Regime Dummies," MPRA Paper 92313, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Mien, Edouard, 2021. "External and internal exchange rates and the Dutch disease: Evidence from a panel of oil-exporting African countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 206-228.
    22. Korotin, Vladimir & Dolgonosov, Maxim & Popov, Victor & Korotina, Olesya & Korolkova, Inna, 2019. "The Ukrainian crisis, economic sanctions, oil shock and commodity currency: Analysis based on EMD approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 156-168.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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