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Financial sector ups and downs and the real sector : big hindrance, little help

  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Pinto, Brian
  • Sushko, Vladyslav

This paper examines how financial expansion and contraction cycles affect the broader economy through their impact on eight real economic sectors in a panel of 28 countries over 1960-2005, paying particular attention to large, or sharp, contractions and magnifying and mitigating factors. Overall, the construction sector is the most responsive to financial sector growth, with a number of others -- such as government, public utilities, and transportation -- also exhibiting significant sensitivity to lagged financial sector growth. Sharp fluctuations in the financial sector have asymmetric effects, with the majority of real sectors adversely affected by contractions but not helped by expansions. The adverse effects of financial contractions are transmitted almost exclusively by the financial openness channel with foreign reserves mitigating these effects with a sizeable (10 to 15 times greater) impact during sharp financial contractions. Both effects are magnified during particularly large financial contractions (with coefficients on interaction terms two to three times greater than when all contractions are considered). Consequent upon a financial contraction, the most severe real sector contractions occur in countries with high financial openness; relative predominance of construction, manufacturing, and wholesale and retail sectors; and low international reserves. Finally, the analysis finds that abrupt financial contractions are more likely to follow periods of accelerated growth, indicative of"up by the stairs, down by the elevator dynamics."

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 5860.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 2011
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5860
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  1. Do, Quy-Toan & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2007. "Comparative advantage, demand for external finance, and financial development," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 796-834, December.
  2. McMillan, Margaret & Rodrik, Dani, 2012. "Globalization, structural change, and productivity growth:," IFPRI discussion papers 1160, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  3. Aizenman, Joshua & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2011. "Capital Flow Types, External Financing Needs, and Industrial Growth: 99 countries, 1991-2007," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3fb716f8, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  4. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
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  6. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2004. "Sudden Stops and the Mexican Wave: Currency Crises, Capital Flow Reversals and Output Loss in Emerging Markets," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt38j2b036, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  8. Hassan, M. Kabir & Sanchez, Benito & Yu, Jung-Suk, 2011. "Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from panel data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 88-104, February.
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2002. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Working Papers 9127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Aizenman, Joshua & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2011. "Capital flows: Catalyst or Hindrance to economic takeoffs?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt79f5144f, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  11. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
  12. Marcel P. Timmer & Gaaitzen J. de Vries, 2009. "Structural change and growth accelerations in Asia and Latin America: a new sectoral data set," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(2), pages 165-190, June.
  13. Timmer, Marcel P. & Vries, Gaaitzen J. de, 2007. "A Cross-country Database For Sectoral Employment And Productivity in Asia and Latin America, 1950-2005," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-98, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
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