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Équilibre extérieur et taux de change réel : apport du modèle de croissance contrainte par la balance des paiements

  • Bineau, Yannick

    (EQUIPPE, Faculté de sciences économiques et sociales, Université des sciences et technologies de Lille 1)

The article, unlike many studies, focuses on the growth rate of real exchange rates and its fundamental determinants, i.e. the speed of evolution. The model’s core theoretical bases are Post-Keynesian. More precisely, the balance of payments constrained growth model, developed in 1979 by Thirlwall, is extended in order to incorporate long term net capital flows more clearly. This extended model makes it possible to show that a creditor or indebted economy, wishing to reach a given value of growth for the real exchange rate, must take into consideration a two-sided constraint on its balance of payments. The first one is the long term constraint on current account, constraint faced by every country. The second is the temporary current account imbalances which can appear in the medium-term because of compensating capital flows. The combination of foreign trade elasticities conditions trade-off between both constraints and the adjustement’s methods of a nation following a shock on net capital flows then strongly depend of the link between both aspects of external accounts. The model shows that an active exchange rate policy must take into consideration the estimated values of foreign trade elasticitie. L’article met l’accent sur les taux de croissance du taux de change réel et de ses déterminants fondamentaux, c’est-à-dire sur leur vitesse d’évolution, alors qu’une large part de ces travaux sur les taux de change porte sur son niveau. Les bases théoriques sont postkeynésiennes. Plus précisément, le modèle de croissance contrainte par la balance des paiements qui a été développé en 1979 par Thirlwall est étendu afin d’incorporer plus particulièrement les flux nets de capitaux de long terme. Le modèle ainsi amendé permet de montrer qu’une économie, qu’elle soit créditrice ou débitrice nette, qui souhaite atteindre une valeur donnée du taux de croissance de son taux de change réel doit prendre en compte une double contrainte sur sa balance des paiements. La première constitue la contrainte d’équilibre de long terme sur le solde des transactions courantes que tous les pays subissent. La deuxième décrit le déséquilibre courant temporaire qui peut exister à moyen terme en raison des flux compensateurs de capitaux. La combinaison des élasticités du commerce extérieur conditionne l’articulation entre ces deux contraintes et les modalités d’ajustement d’une nation à la suite d’un choc sur les flux nets de capitaux dépendent alors étroitement de cette combinaison entre ces deux expressions des comptes extérieurs. Le modèle montre qu’une politique d’appréciation ou de dépréciation du taux change réel doit tenir compte des valeurs prises par les élasticités du commerce extérieur.

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Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

Volume (Year): 84 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (septembre)
Pages: 263-285

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Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:84:y:2008:i:3:p:263-285
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