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Une approche dynamique du taux de change reel d'equilibre

Listed author(s):
  • Yannick Bineau
  • Bernard Dupont

Cet article elabore un modele d'evolution du taux de change reel d'equilibre. L'argument central est que son evolution est tout aussi importante que son niveau. La vitesse d'appreciation ou de depreciation du taux de change reel peut avoir autant d'incidences a moyen terme sur une economie que ses deviations larges et durables relativement a ses fondamentaux. Le modele theorique adopte combine deux blocs. Un bloc d'equilibre externe determine le taux de croissance du taux de change reel qui resulte de l'equilibre des comptes exterieurs. Un bloc d'equilibre interne definit le taux de croissance du taux de change reel qui assure l'equilibre entre les revendications salariales et les objectifs des entrepreneurs. L'association de ces deux blocs mene a un modele dynamique au sens ou il concerne uniquement les rythmes de croissance du taux de change reel et ses determinants. Ce modele concilie l'equilibre sur les marches des biens echangeables et des capitaux internationaux et l'equilibre interne. Les politiques de change sont dependantes des interactions entre ces deux blocs.

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Article provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): 96 ()
Pages: 5-22

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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2003-4ta
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