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The Simple Analytics of Sudden Stops

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  • Peter Montiel

Abstract

Currency crises in emerging and developing countries have often been characterized by “sudden stops” of capital flows. A variety of mechanisms have been adduced to explain the emergence of this phenomenon. This paper integrates these mechanisms into a simple and transparent analytical model in which currency mismatches, large current account deficits, and large stocks of short-term debt interact with low reserve stocks to generate dual equilibria. In this context, the “panic” equilibrium is characterized by a currency crisis, a sudden stop, and an output collapse. The potential for various policies to avoid this outcome is explored, as are the implications of the analysis for reserve accumulation. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Montiel, 2013. "The Simple Analytics of Sudden Stops," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 267-281, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:24:y:2013:i:2:p:267-281
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-012-9241-9
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    1. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 1998. "Emerging Market Crises: An Asset Markets Perspective," Working papers 98-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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    12. Montiel, Peter & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1999. "Do capital controls and macroeconomic policies influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 619-635, August.
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    14. Pablo E. Guidotti & Federico Sturzenegger & Agustín Villar, 2004. "On the Consequences of Sudden Stops," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 171-214, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Levan Efremidze & John Rutledge & Thomas D. Willett, 2016. "Capital Flow Surges As Bubbles: Behavioral Finance And Mckinnon’S Over-Borrowing Syndrome Extended," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-27, June.
    2. Seung-Gwan Baek & Chi-Young Song, 2016. "On the Determinants of Surges and Stops in Foreign Loans: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 405-445, July.
    3. Levan Efremidze & Sungsoo Kim & Ozan Sula & Thomas D. Willett, 2017. "The relationships among capital flow surges, reversals and sudden stops," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(4), pages 393-413, November.
    4. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2017. "Greece’s Three-Act Tragedy: A Simple Model of Grexit vs. Staying Afloat inside the Single Currency Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 297-318, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency crises; Mismatches; Multiple equilibria; Sudden stops; F32; F41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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