IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_5677.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Greece's Three-Act Tragedy: A Simple Model of Grexit vs. Staying Afloat inside the Single Currency Area

Author

Listed:
  • Yu-Fu Chen
  • Michael Funke

Abstract

Against the backdrop of the Greek three-act tragedy, we present a theoretical framework for studying Greece’s recent debt and currency crisis. The model is built on two essential blocks: first, erratic macroeconomic policymaking in Greece is described using a stochastic regime-switching model; second, the euro area governments’ responses to uncertain macroeconomic policies in Greece are considered. The model’s mechanism and assumptions allow either for a Grexit from the euro area or, conversely, the avoidance of Greece’s default against its creditors. The model also offers useful guidance to understand key drivers of the long-winded negotiations between the Syiza government and the euro area governments.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2015. "Greece's Three-Act Tragedy: A Simple Model of Grexit vs. Staying Afloat inside the Single Currency Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 5677, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5677
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp5677.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rahul Mukherjee & Linda L. Tesar & Ron Alquist, 2014. "Liquidity-Driven FDI," IHEID Working Papers 17-2014, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 11 Dec 2014.
    2. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Thomas Philippon & Dimitri Vayanos, 2017. "The Analytics of the Greek Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-81.
    3. Dani Rodrik, 2014. "When Ideas Trump Interests: Preferences, Worldviews, and Policy Innovations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 189-208, Winter.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Georgia: Request for a Stand-By Arrangement and an Arrangement Under the Stand-by Credit Facility: Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/098, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2015. "The Pitfalls of External Dependence: Greece, 1829–2015," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 307-328.
    7. Ozan Sula, 2010. "Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 589-605, September.
    8. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    11. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Cacciatore, Matteo & Duval, Romain & Fiori, Giuseppe & Ghironi, Fabio, 2016. "Short-term pain for long-term gain: Market deregulation and monetary policy in small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 358-385.
    13. McQuinn, Kieran & Whelan, Karl, 2015. "Europe's Long-Term Growth Prospects: With and Without Structural Reforms," Papers WP501, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-oskooee & Charikleia Economidou, 2005. "How stable is the demand for money in Greece?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 461-472.
    15. Christiansen, Lone & Schindler, Martin & Tressel, Thierry, 2013. "Growth and structural reforms: A new assessment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 347-356.
    16. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    17. Eggertsson, Gauti & Ferrero, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2014. "Can structural reforms help Europe?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 2-22.
    18. Christopher L. House & Linda L. Tesar, 2015. "Greek Budget Realities: No Easy Option," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 329-347.
    19. De Grauwe, Paul, 2015. "Greece is solvent but illiquid: What should the ECB do?," CEPS Papers 10694, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    20. Peter Montiel, 2014. "Capital Flows: Issues and Policies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 595-633, July.
    21. repec:rnp:ecopol:09111 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Peter Montiel, 2013. "The Simple Analytics of Sudden Stops," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 267-281, April.
    23. Zellner, A., 1992. "Statistics, Science and Public Policy," Papers 92-21, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
    24. Christopher L. House & Linda L. Tesar, 2015. "Greek Budget Realities: No Easy Options," NBER Working Papers 21688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2004. "Government guarantees and self-fulfilling speculative attacks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 31-63, November.
    26. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    27. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Greece: Request for Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility: Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for ," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/057, International Monetary Fund.
    29. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Republic of Kosovo: Request for Stand-By Arrangement: Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/100, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Croitoru, Lucian, 2013. "Liquidity, the October 2008 Speculative Attack and the Central Bank Reputation," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 18-51, June.
    3. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    4. Wee Chian Koh & M. Ayhan Kose & Peter S. Nagle & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2020. "Debt and Financial Crises," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2001, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    5. Kris James Mitchener & Gonçalo Pina, 2016. "Pegxit Pressure: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard," NBER Working Papers 22844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2021. "Revisiting speculative hyperinflations in monetary models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 1-11, April.
    7. AsIcI, Ahmet AtIl, 2011. "Exchange rate regime choice and currency crises," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 419-436, September.
    8. Rakesh Padhan & K. P. Prabheesh, 2019. "Effectiveness Of Early Warning Models: A Critical Review And New Agenda For Future Direction," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 457-484, December.
    9. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126, Decembrie.
    10. Mahdi Yazdani & Mohammad Nikzad, 2021. "Output Losses from Currency Crises and the Role of Central Bank," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(3), pages 79-97.
    11. repec:dgr:rugsom:12005-eef is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Olga Stoddard & Ilan Noy, 2015. "Fire-sale FDI? The Impact of Financial Crises on Foreign Direct Investment," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 387-399, May.
    13. Antonio Doblas‐Madrid, 2009. "Fiscal Trends and Self‐Fulfilling Crises," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 187-204, February.
    14. Tamgac, Unay, 2011. "Crisis and self-fulfilling expectations: The Turkish experience in 1994 and 2000-2001," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 44-58, January.
    15. David A. Steinberg & Karrie J. Koesel & Nicolas W. Thompson, 2015. "Political Regimes and Currency Crises," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 337-361, November.
    16. Bordo, M.D. & Meissner, C.M., 2016. "Fiscal and Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 355-412, Elsevier.
    17. M. Araceli Rodríguez López, "undated". "Variables fundamentales o ataques "Self-fulfilling"? Una explicación a las crisis de credibilidad de la peseta espanola," Studies on the Spanish Economy 90, FEDEA.
    18. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    19. Kristina Kittelmann & Marcel Tirpak & Rainer Schweickert & Lúcio Vinhas De Souza, 2006. "From Transition Crises to Macroeconomic Stability? Lessons from a Crises Early Warning System for Eastern European and CIS Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 410-434, September.
    20. Eijffinger Sylvester C. W. & Goderis Benedikt, 2007. "Currency Crises, Monetary Policy and Corporate Balance Sheets," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 309-343, August.
    21. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Greece; currency crisis; euro; financial assistance programmes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5677. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.