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Global financial shocks and foreign asset repatriation: Do local investors play a stabilizing role?

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  • Adler, Gustavo
  • Djigbenou, Marie-Louise
  • Sosa, Sebastian

Abstract

We study the dynamic response of gross capital flows in emerging market economies to different global financial shocks, using a panel vector-autoregressive (PVAR) approach. Our focus lies primarily on the potentially stabilizing role played by domestic investors in offsetting the response of foreign investors to adverse global shocks. We find that, while foreign investors tend to retrench from emerging markets in response to global risk aversion and monetary policy shocks, foreign asset repatriation by resident investors does not always follow suit. Local investors play a meaningful stabilizing role in the face of global risk aversion shocks, with sizeable asset repatriation largely offsetting the retrenchment of non-residents. In contrast, foreign investor retrenchment in response to global monetary policy shocks is not mirrored by asset repatriation. Finally, we find robust evidence that positive global real shocks tend to have a positive impact on net capital inflows to emerging markets. Our results shed light on the likely impact of the Fed's QE tapering on capital flows to emerging market economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Adler, Gustavo & Djigbenou, Marie-Louise & Sosa, Sebastian, 2016. "Global financial shocks and foreign asset repatriation: Do local investors play a stabilizing role?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 8-28.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:60:y:2016:i:c:p:8-28
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.03.007
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    1. repec:wsi:jicepx:v:06:y:2015:i:02:n:s1793993315500088 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:wsi:jicepx:v:08:y:2017:i:03:n:s179399331750017x is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," Working Paper Series WP15-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    4. repec:eee:ecmode:v:76:y:2019:i:c:p:31-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Magud, Nicolas E. & Vesperoni, Esteban R., 2015. "Exchange rate flexibility and credit during capital inflow reversals: Purgatory … not paradise," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 88-110.
    6. Eduardo Olaberría, 2015. "US Long-Term Interest Rates and Capital Flows to Emerging Economies," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(02), pages 1-32.
    7. Janus, Thorsten & Riera-Crichton, Daniel, 2016. "Banking crises, external crises and gross capital flows," Globalization Institute Working Papers 273, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Alejandro Jara, 2016. "Facing volatile capital flows: the role of exchange rate flexibility and foreign assets," Chapters,in: Macroprudential Regulation of International Finance, chapter 11, pages 256-284 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Pär Stockhammar & Pär Österholm, 2017. "The Impact of US Uncertainty Shocks on Small Open Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 347-368, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Gross capital flows; Foreign assets; Global financial shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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