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The dynamics of international capital flows: Results from a dynamic hierarchical factor model

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  • Förster, Marcel
  • Jorra, Markus
  • Tillmann, Peter

Abstract

The present paper examines the degree of comovement of gross capital inflows, which is a highly sensitive issue for policy makers. We estimate a dynamic hierarchical factor model that is able to decompose inflows in a sample of 47 economies into (i) a global factor common to all types of flows and all recipient countries, (ii) a factor specific to a given type of capital inflows, (iii) a regional factor and (iv) a country-specific component. We find that the latter explains by far the largest fraction of fluctuations in capital inflows followed by regional factors, which are particularly important for emerging markets' FDI and portfolio inflows as well as bank lending to Emerging Europe. The global factor, however, explains only a small share of the overall variation. We also employ dynamic panel and time series regressions to explain the determinants of the estimated components. The global factor is shown to reflect U.S. financial conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Förster, Marcel & Jorra, Markus & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "The dynamics of international capital flows: Results from a dynamic hierarchical factor model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 101-124.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:48:y:2014:i:pa:p:101-124
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.07.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Garima Vasishtha, 2014. "The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies," Staff Working Papers 14-53, Bank of Canada.
    2. Christian Friedrich & Pierre Guérin, 2016. "The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes," Staff Working Papers 16-9, Bank of Canada.
    3. Tillmann, Peter, 2013. "Capital inflows and asset prices: Evidence from emerging Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 717-729.
    4. Hardik A. Marfatia, 2016. "The Role of Push and Pull Factors in Driving Global Capital Flows," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 62(2), pages 117-146.
    5. repec:eee:intfin:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:142-154 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:reveco:v:53:y:2018:i:c:p:25-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Adler, Gustavo & Djigbenou, Marie-Louise & Sosa, Sebastian, 2016. "Global financial shocks and foreign asset repatriation: Do local investors play a stabilizing role?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 8-28.
    8. Guo, Liang, 2016. "Are U.S. investors blindly chasing returns in foreign countries?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 309-334.
    9. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan, 2016. "Transmission of global financial shocks to EMU member states: The role of monetary policy and national factors," Discussion Papers 23/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Koepke, Robin, 2015. "What Drives Capital Flows to Emerging Markets? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," MPRA Paper 62770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Marcel Förster & Peter Tillmann, 2013. "Local Inflation: Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201303, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    12. Marcel Förster & Peter Tillmann, 2014. "Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 841-863, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Dynamic hierarchical factor model; Emerging economies; Financial crises;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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