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Identifying crucial financial markets in the flows of cross-border capital – evidence from China's financial risk network

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  • Yu, Xiaojian
  • Li, Zhiyong
  • Lien, Donald
  • Hu, Jinqiang

Abstract

With the increasing openness of China's financial markets, it is important to address cross-border capital risks. This paper first calculates the stress indicators of financial markets by 24 variables, and then utilizes the Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness approach to examine the spillover effects among the volatility of cross-border capital and the stress indicators of various financial markets. We show both the real estate and stock market are crucial for cross-border capital flow. Using the rolling window method, we find significant time-varying spillovers between cross-border capital and financial markets, which peak during the periods with significant events such as the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 epidemic, and the shift in currency regime. This paper further applies the Markov-switching autoregressive model to identify three different states for the synthetic financial stress. After re-analyzing the subsample data, we observe that stock and real estate markets play significant roles in the low-stress state, foreign exchange and real estate markets in the medium-stress state, and stock and money markets in the high-stress state.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Xiaojian & Li, Zhiyong & Lien, Donald & Hu, Jinqiang, 2024. "Identifying crucial financial markets in the flows of cross-border capital – evidence from China's financial risk network," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:96:y:2024:i:pb:s1059056024006622
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103670
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