IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v35y2011i8p1941-1953.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring and explaining the volatility of capital flows to emerging countries

Author

Listed:
  • Broto, Carmen
  • Díaz-Cassou, Javier
  • Erce, Aitor

Abstract

This paper analyzes the determinants of the volatility of the various types of capital inflows into emerging countries. After calculating a proxy of the volatility of FDI, portfolio and bank inflows, we use a panel data model to study their relationship with a broad set of explanatory variables. Our results highlight the difficulties policy-makers face in stabilizing capital flows. Thus, we show that since 2000 global factors beyond the control of emerging economies have become increasingly significant relative to country-specific drivers. However, we identify some domestic macroeconomic and financial factors that appear to reduce the volatility of certain capital flows without increasing that of others.

Suggested Citation

  • Broto, Carmen & Díaz-Cassou, Javier & Erce, Aitor, 2011. "Measuring and explaining the volatility of capital flows to emerging countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1941-1953, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:8:p:1941-1953
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426611000252
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claessens, Stijn & Dooley, Michael P & Warner, Andrew, 1995. "Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 153-174, January.
    2. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    4. Smith, Katherine A. & Valderrama, Diego, 2009. "The composition of capital inflows when emerging market firms face financing constraints," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 223-234, July.
    5. Hélène Rey & Philippe Martin, 2006. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1631-1651, December.
    6. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting, and Volatility," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 61-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka & Repina, Sebastijan, 2011. "The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 310-322, February.
    8. Aitor Erce, 2008. "A structural model of sovereign debt issuance: assessing the role of financial factors," Working Papers 0809, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    10. Goldstein, Itay & Razin, Assaf, 2006. "An information-based trade off between foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 271-295, September.
    11. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2007. "Capital Flows in a Globalized World: The Role of Policies and Institutions," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 19-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1999. "Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 337-364, August.
    13. Umutlu, Mehmet & Akdeniz, Levent & Altay-Salih, Aslihan, 2010. "The degree of financial liberalization and aggregated stock-return volatility in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 509-521, March.
    14. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "Financial development and the instability of open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1077-1106, September.
    15. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    16. Chuang, Chia-Chang & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Lin, Hsin-Yi, 2009. "Causality in quantiles and dynamic stock return-volume relations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1351-1360, July.
    17. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    18. Robert F. Engle & Jose Gonzalo Rangel, 2005. "The Spline GARCH Model for Unconditional Volatility and its Global Macroeconomic Causes," Working Papers 2005/13, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    19. Jinjarak, Yothin & Wongswan, Jon & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2011. "International fund investment and local market returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 572-587, March.
    20. Robert E. Lipsey, 2001. "Foreign Direct Investors in Three Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 8084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Albuquerque, Rui, 2003. "The composition of international capital flows: risk sharing through foreign direct investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 353-383, December.
    22. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Laux, Paul A., 2009. "Portfolio flows, volatility and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 271-292, March.
    23. Neumann, Rebecca M. & Penl, Ron & Tanku, Altin, 2009. "Volatility of capital flows and financial liberalization: Do specific flows respond differently?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 488-501, June.
    24. Bank for International Settlements, 2009. "Capital flows and emerging market economies," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 33.
    25. Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas, 2009. "Financial reforms and time-varying microstructures in emerging equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1755-1769, October.
    26. Daniel Hoechle, 2007. "Robust standard errors for panel regressions with cross-sectional dependence," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(3), pages 281-312, September.
    27. Tesar, Linda L & Werner, Ingrid M, 1995. "U.S. Equity Investment in Emerging Stock Markets," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 109-129, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martijn J. Burger & Elena I. Ianchovichina, 2017. "Surges and stops in greenfield and M&A FDI flows to developing countries: analysis by mode of entry," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(2), pages 411-432, May.
    2. Perera, Anil & Wickramanayake, J., 2016. "Determinants of commercial bank retail interest rate adjustments: Evidence from a panel data model," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-20.
    3. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Axel Löffler & Gunther Schnabl & Franziska Schobert, 2013. "Limits of Monetary Policy Autonomy and Exchange Rate Flexibility by East Asian Central Banks," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 48-2013, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    5. Li, Jie & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2015. "Do capital controls make gross equity flows to emerging markets less volatile?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 220-244.
    6. Maria Sole Pagliari & Swarnali Ahmed Hannan, 2017. "The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets: Measures and Determinants," Departmental Working Papers 201710, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    7. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2012. "Macroeconomic Stability, Financial Stability, and Monetary Policy Rules," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 205-224, June.
    8. repec:eee:jeborg:v:142:y:2017:i:c:p:140-163 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:265-274 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Gabriela Contreras & Francisco Pinto, 2014. "Vulnerability to Changes in External Financing Due to Global Factors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 734, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Capital flows and GDP in emerging economies and the role of global spillovers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 140-163.
    12. repec:spr:portec:v:16:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10258-016-0126-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Margit Molnar & Yusuke Tateno & Amornrut Supornsinchai, 2013. "Capital Flows in Asia-Pacific: Controls, Bonanzas and Sudden Stops," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 320, OECD Publishing.
    14. Gkillas (Gillas), Konstantinos & Tsagkanos, Athanasios & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2016. "The risk in capital controls," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 261-266.
    15. Alberola, Enrique & Erce, Aitor & Serena, José Maria, 2016. "International reserves and gross capital flows dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 151-171.
    16. Lee, Hyun-Hoon & Park, Cyn-Young & Byun, Hyung-suk, 2013. "Do contagion effects exist in capital flow volatility?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 76-95.
    17. Sensoy, Ahmet, 2015. "An alternative way to track the hot money in turbulent times," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 215-220.
    18. Förster, Marcel & Jorra, Markus & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "The dynamics of international capital flows: Results from a dynamic hierarchical factor model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 101-124.
    19. Saif Al-Abri, Almukhtar, 2014. "How does terms-of-trade behavior shape international financial integration in primary-commodity exporting economies?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 335-353.
    20. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2016. "Quantitative easing and the post-crisis surge in financial flows to developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 331-357.
    21. Cavoli, Tony, 2014. "Substitutes or complements? The interactions between components of capital inflows for Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31, pages 32-41.
    22. Samitas, Aristeidis & Polyzos, Stathis, 2016. "Freeing Greece from capital controls: Were the restrictions enforced in time?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 196-213.
    23. Ben Salha, Ousama, 2013. "Does economic globalization affect the level and volatility of labor demand by skill? New insights from the Tunisian manufacturing industries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 572-597.
    24. repec:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:312-320 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. repec:sgm:resrep:v:2:i:22:y:2016:p:201-212 is not listed on IDEAS

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:8:p:1941-1953. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.