IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows

  • Silvio Contessi
  • Pierangelo DePace
  • Johanna Francis

We describe the second-moment properties of the components of international capital flows and their relationship (covariance and correlation) to business cycle variables of 22 emerging and OECD countries. Disaggregated flows have different volatility properties, with debt being the most volatile and FDI the least volatile. We show that (a) inward flows are procyclical, outward and net outward flows are countercyclical for most industrial and emerging countries while, for the G-7, both inward and outward flows are procyclical and net outflows are countercyclical; (b) inward FDI flows are procyclical in industrial countries, countercyclical in emerging countries; and (c) there is no clear pattern for other equity flows and debt. Using formal statistical tests, we document changes in variability, covariance, and correlation of capital flows with a set of macroeconomic variables for G-7 countries. We find mixed evidence of changes over capital account liberalization episodes and breaks in international business cycles, and a clear increase in variance for all types and signs of flows. We estimate breaks at unknown dates in the conditional variance of each capital flow to find that they differ considerably from the breaks associated with capital account liberalization and financial globalization.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2008/2008-041.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2008-041.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2008-041
Contact details of provider: Postal: P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166
Fax: (314)444-8753
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Claessens, Stijn & Dooley, Michael P & Warner, Andrew, 1995. "Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cold?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 153-74, January.
  2. Graciela Laura Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2008. "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: Financial Liberalization and Stock Market Cycles," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 253-292.
  3. Sergio L. Schmukler & Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 2003. "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain; The Effects of Financial Liberalization," IMF Working Papers 03/34, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Martin D. D. Evans (Georgetown University) and Viktoria Hnatkovska (Georgetown University), 2005. "International Capital Flows, Returns and World Financial Integration," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-17, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  5. Neumann, Rebecca M. & Penl, Ron & Tanku, Altin, 2009. "Volatility of capital flows and financial liberalization: Do specific flows respond differently?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 488-501, June.
  6. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004. "When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "The cyclical nature of North-South FDI flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 104-130, February.
  8. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2004. "Financial globalization and real regionalization," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 207-243, November.
  9. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Does financial globalization promote risk sharing?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 258-270, July.
  10. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 143-197, June.
  11. Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 10387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Bruce E. Hansen, 1998. "Testing for Structural Change in Conditional Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 310., Boston College Department of Economics.
  13. Goldstein, Itay & Razin, Assaf, 2006. "An information-based trade off between foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 271-295, September.
  14. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2007. "Solving for Country Portfolios in Open Economy Macro Models," IMF Working Papers 07/284, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Paolo Mauro & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2006. "Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect From Sudden Stops?," IMF Working Papers 06/202, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Fernando A. Broner & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Why are Capital Flows so Much More Volatile in Emerging Than in Developed Countries?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 328, Central Bank of Chile.
  17. AMBLER, Steve & CARDIA, Emanuela & ZIMMERMANN, Christian, 2000. "International Business Cycles: What Are the Facts?," Cahiers de recherche 2000-05, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  18. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
  19. Smith, Katherine A. & Valderrama, Diego, 2009. "The composition of capital inflows when emerging market firms face financing constraints," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 223-234, July.
  20. Silvio Contessi & Pierangelo DePace & Johanna Francis, 2008. "The cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows," Working Papers 2008-041, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  21. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2010. "International capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 157-175, March.
  22. Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Rampini, Adriano A., 2006. "Capital reallocation and liquidity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 369-399, April.
  23. Fogli, Alessandra & Perri, Fabrizio, 2006. "The 'Great Moderation' and the US External Imbalance," CEPR Discussion Papers 6010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
  25. repec:cas:wpaper:cas_rn_2007_5 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Brian M. Doyle & Jon Faust, 2003. "Breaks in the variability and co-movement of G-7 economic growth," International Finance Discussion Papers 786, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  27. Alexander D. Rothenberg & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Sudden Flight and True Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 12726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Patrick-Antoine Pintus, 2007. "Procyclical International Capital Flows, Debt Overhang And Volatility," Working Papers halshs-00353596, HAL.
  29. De Pace, Pierangelo, 2013. "Currency Union, Free-Trade Areas, And Business Cycle Synchronization," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(03), pages 646-680, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2008-041. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Xiao)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.